From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 18:29:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 13:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060201182956.2F63A8B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011828 LAZ000-TXZ000-012030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011828Z - 012030Z SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN TX...LIKELY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL REGION ATTM...BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOBS. HOWEVER...UVV -- AIDED BY STRONG UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM -- IS ALLOWING CAP TO SLOWLY LIFT/WEAKEN...AS CONFIRMED BY 17Z CRP RAOB. THOUGH CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM REMAINS WEAK/ELEVATED ABOVE STRONG CAP...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CAP TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. COMBINATION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO EVOLVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 02/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 28119824 29659809 31349690 32099476 31759306 29949284 28229618 27689758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 20:46:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 15:46:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060201204656.180BF8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012045 TXZ000-012215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012045Z - 012215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF E TX NW OF WW 0024...AS CONVECTION INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTENSIFY INVOF TPL/AUS/CLL WITHIN LARGER AREA OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX. WITH 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AND 45 KT SHEAR PER LATEST LDB /LEDBETTER TX/ PROFILER...STORMS WILL LIKELY ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH TIME. GIVEN RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..GOSS.. 02/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30699804 32199479 31189389 29539726 30059800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 00:49:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 19:49:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202004957.1E79B8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020048 LAZ000-TXZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24... VALID 020048Z - 020215Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE AND OTHER CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 24 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW OVER SCNTRL TX WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT PUNCHING EWD INTO SE TX ATTM. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SRN LA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT. SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN LA CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ACROSS SE TX. THIS SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29379144 29269290 29069400 29009464 29259507 29849520 30269513 30579450 30869338 30909197 30659117 30229105 29699108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:44:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:44:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202054506.C0D328B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020544 LAZ000-020715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25... VALID 020544Z - 020715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF WW 25 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW IN SCNTRL TX WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD ENTERING SW LA ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE 55 TO 60 F DEGREE RANGE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK AHEAD OF THE LINE...A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SWRN LA IS CREATING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29069079 29259212 29539267 30349272 30709203 30559078 30339010 29808986 29239016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 07:53:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 02:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202075400.4173F8B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020752 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / FAR SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020752Z - 020915Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 25 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN LA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SE OF POE WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER SERN LA INTO SRN MS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL LA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER FORCING HAS BEGUN TO ACT ON SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NRN GULF. WHILE 06Z SLIDELL SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ TO 50-60 KTS THROUGH 02/12Z WILL SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD. THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS/SWRN AL AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29979027 30499030 30738958 30908782 30738724 30248706 29818732 29469001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 09:05:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 04:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202090608.0FE118B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020905 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-021030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020905Z - 021030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A SEPARATE..CYCLONICALLY CURVED CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS OF 0850Z IN STRONGLY DIVERGENT REGION AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -16 C AT 500 MB ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG /. THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE WINNFIELD LA PROFILER WITH WINDS VEERING THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS AND LIFTS NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE OVER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED /I.E. STABLE/ SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER S...MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER CNTRL INTO SWRN LA ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING SEWD. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31869374 32309363 32899287 33089201 32939104 32319101 31549164 31179230 31079316 31319366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 10:09:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 05:09:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202101024.1FF1B8B39A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021009 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA / SRN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26... VALID 021009Z - 021145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0950Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX BOW ECHO STRUCTURE EVOLVING OVER FAR SERN LA INTO SRN MS WITH A SYSTEM MOVEMENT OF 245/40-45 KTS. THE CYCLONIC LINE END VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT CIRCULATION...THOUGH RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS PORTION OF MCS IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS FEATURE N OF WW 26 INTO LAMAR...FORREST AND PERHAPS PERRY COUNTIES BY 1030Z. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST N OF WW AREA...THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MESOCYCLONE AND NON-DESCENDING TYPE TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG CREST OF THE BOW ECHO SWWD ALONG THE WAVY TRAILING FLANK WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A MORE DISCRETE HP SUPERCELL 35 WSW OF BVE. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE APEX OF THIS BOW IS N OF RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH SRN PORTION OF MCS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INVOF OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF BOWING PORTION OF MCS WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE /MARC/. EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOBILE AREA BY 1100-1130Z. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30989067 31058649 29368646 29379067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 12:13:33 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 07:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202121403.840928B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021213 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL / SERN AL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021213Z - 021345Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 13Z AS MCS APPROACHES DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1155Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS...LEWPS AND HP SUPERCELLS FROM 35 E MOB TO 35 SE BVE WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 250/40-45 KTS. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS /OVER BALDWIN COUNTY AL/ REMAINS N OF PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS S OF MOB TO ROUGHLY 65 SSW OF AAF. GIVEN THE RAPID ENEWD MOTION OF THE MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL/SERN AL AND SWRN GA AFTER 13Z. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST...COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED...THOUGH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30918633 31338608 31458528 31258434 31028390 30318379 29928405 29538505 29578586 30068642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 16:42:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 11:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202164250.A74438B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021641 FLZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021641Z - 021845Z TSTMS MOVING FROM GULF WATERS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS GULF/FRANKLIN COUNTIES MAY BECOME SFC-BASED. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW ECHO MODE...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME FOR WW. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...BOTH OVER THOSE AREAS AND INLAND 20-30 NM TOWARD I-10 CORRIDOR...FROM BOTH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND MORE DISCRETE BUT ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM S AAF AS OF 16Z...AND THIS FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE BRIEFLY E OF CAPE SAN BLAS AND BEFORE PASSAGE OF TSTM LINE. 12Z TLH RAOB WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF MORE DRY/STABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR MASS THAN ENVIRONMENT NOW EVIDENT S OF AAF. MUCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1500-2000 J/KG S OF MARINE FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 70 F AS OBSERVED ALONG/S OF FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH BACKED FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH 200-500 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978550 30218536 30518468 30518402 30068394 29878432 29538500 29688541 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 21:05:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 16:05:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202210600.E7C938B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022104 FLZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022104Z - 022300Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST. DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930S BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST GEORGE ISLAND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD TOWARD GNV. AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO CAROLINAS. THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64 DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333 29908410 29528507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 21:09:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 16:09:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202211002.EFFCA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022108 COR FLZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022108Z - 022300Z CORRECTED FOR TIME TYPO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST. DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930Z BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST GEORGE ISLAND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD TOWARD GNV. AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO CAROLINAS. THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64 DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333 29908410 29528507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 22:55:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 17:55:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202225542.BBFD38B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022254 FLZ000-GAZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / EXTREME SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 022254Z - 030100Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS WELL. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING. THUS...WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES MOVING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL. ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 03Z WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THREAT WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ADVECTION OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRUE SURFACE BASED STORMS. FURTHER...GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH VALUES OF OVER 1.50 INCHES NOW INTO NRN FL. OFFSHORE BUOYS ALSO INDICATE WEDGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ADVECTING NEWD. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY SLOW WITH TIME. THUS...LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29728529 30658368 31588138 31378096 29648112 29058275 28688431 28758531 29318604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 01:00:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 20:00:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203010131.9D3D98B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030100 FLZ000-GAZ000-030230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND FAR SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27... VALID 030100Z - 030230Z A TRAINING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN FL. A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PART OF WW 27. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN FL. A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. IN ADDITION...88D VWP IN NRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55-60 KT WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING AS THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31118207 31048166 30608132 30078142 29708222 29288355 29328401 29568436 29968414 30658318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 06:53:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 01:53:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203065416.097888B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030653 FLZ000-030830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030653Z - 030830Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND COUNTIES OF DIXIE...LEVY...CITRUS BY 0730Z...AND THEN POTENTIALLY FARTHER INLAND FROM UNION TO SUMTER COUNTIES. WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN GULF /65 SW CTY/...WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AROUND 45 KT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY EWD FROM THE BOW ACROSS THE NRN FL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH THE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXITING A REGION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR NRN FL MODIFIED WITH THIS SURFACE MOISTURE VALUE RESULTS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE BOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF FL THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND SLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING THE GREATER MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29658339 29838311 30128236 30078203 29208184 28948181 28678224 28608268 28968274 29378330 29508344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 13:02:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 08:02:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203130248.E8D14D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031301 FLZ000-031330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031301Z - 031330Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FL...ESPECIALLY FOR WEST CENTRAL FL. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE 1245Z POSITION ANALYZED FROM NRN BREVARD COUNTY SWWD TO NRN POLK COUNTY AND THEN WWD TO NRN PINELLAS COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF INTO WEST CENTRAL FL AT 12Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION AS IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA. ALSO THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SURFACE HEATING REQUIRED TO WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL SUGGESTING THE CAP SHOULD EASILY WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... 28388270 28388223 28628138 28938086 28468072 28008059 27578080 27388186 27198255 27618285 28088289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:20:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:20:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203162048.D6B5FD47F0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031620 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031619 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...NRN AND W-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME SERN AR...W-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031619Z - 031845Z HAIL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ATTM IN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL TX TO W-CENTRAL MS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THIS REGIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SW SHV INVOF TX/LA BORDER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THIS SWATH...THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN FURTHER OVER THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH 1. MIDLEVEL COOLING OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN 12Z RAOBS THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT SEWD AHEAD OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND 2. WAA IN LOW LEVELS...ALONG AND ATOP STABLE LAYER NOTED IN OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS. COMBINING THOSE FACTORS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING YIELDS ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PRECLUDE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...HOWEVER VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS THROUGH LOW-MIDLEVELS OF BUOYANT LAYER ARE EVIDENT BASED ON VWP/PROFILER WINDS...MODIFIED SHV/FWD RAOBS AND RUC PROGS. 55-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ELEVATED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246 30809424 31099510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:38:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:38:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203163917.781B8D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031638 FLZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28... VALID 031638Z - 031845Z SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:40:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:40:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203164125.8D638D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031640 COR FLZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28... VALID 031640Z - 031845Z CORRECTED FOR WW TYPE SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 18:21:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 13:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203182140.54AF3D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031820 MEZ000-032215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ME CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 031820Z - 032215Z AFTER INITIAL SNOW...A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH OR GREATER APPEARS LIKELY...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 997 MB SURFACE LOW INVOF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD /TIED TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/ SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INITIAL PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW...ENCROACHING MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AMIDST STRONG WAA PROFILES AS SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. LATEST RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A GENERAL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 20Z-22Z ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY N/NW OF A MILLINOCKET TO PRESQUE ISLE AXIS. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 46576790 46036835 45806892 45816954 46046997 46267013 46537008 47036969 47376920 47396833 47136779 46936766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 19:40:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 14:40:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203194036.7F6ACD47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031939 FLZ000-032045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28... VALID 031939Z - 032045Z WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SW EDGE OF TAMPA BAY SEWD ACROSS DE SOTO COUNTY THEN EWD OVER NRN PORTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE EWD...GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SWRN COAST. RIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT OPTIMALLY ELONGATES HODOGRAPHS AND MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY...CELLS CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN A LOW-MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...WITH ACCOMPANYING/BRIEF WINDOW OF HAIL OR TORNADO RISK. S OF BOUNDARY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HODOGRAPH AREA. ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM TSTMS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THICK ANVIL CANOPY STREAMING FROM MCS OVER OPEN GULF MAY LIMIT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA. ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN OR RE-ISSUE WW. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27918293 28038217 27508077 27188018 26428044 25838188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 20:35:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 15:35:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203203531.D3F75D47F4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032034 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA AND CENTRAL/ERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29... VALID 032034Z - 032230Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF E EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...WHERE A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING HAIL...OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY ABOUT 23Z E OF THIS WW IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SUPERCELLS CROSSING MS RIVER FROM TENSAS PARISH...AND EXITING WARREN COUNTY MS...ARE MOVING VARIABLY TOWARD ENE THROUGH ESE AT 30-35 KT...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES DIAMETER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BENEATH THIS CONVECTION DURING PAST 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS A 61 KT GUST ESTIMATE FROM MADISON PARISH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WW. KINEMATICALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH RIGHTMOST OBSERVED MOTIONS INPUT...0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG STILL CAN BE DERIVED FROM JAN VWP. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246 30809424 31099510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 21:20:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 16:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203212104.1636ED47EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032119 FLZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032119Z - 032315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER GULF COAST BETWEEN PFN-AQQ AND SEWD THROUGH FL COASTAL BEND. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL ONCE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE NEAR COAST. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS NERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION...WEAK CINH...AND LIFT ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 21Z FROM SRQ AREA NWWD TO NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER NW TO ROUGHLY 65 S PFN. BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFT NWD OVER THIS REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ITS N AS OUTFLOW POOL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE. ALTHOUGH SOME DIABATIC SFC COOLING MAY RESTRICT INCREASE IN SBCAPE...SUCH A STABLE LAYER WOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAY NOT PRECLUDE EFFECTIVE PARCEL FROM REACHING SFC. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED MUCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR 60-65 KT IN BUOYANT LAYER...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. LEFT-MOVING/ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL ALREADY IS EVIDENT INVOF NWRN END OF BOUNDARY...ABOUT 60 S PFN AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30138578 30428503 30658404 30528273 29748210 28588191 28388245 28438271 28908281 29068313 29598350 30028405 29678472 29538510 29658536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 22:11:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 17:11:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203221140.1F5C7D47FD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032210 FLZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032210Z - 032345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM -- AROUND 30 SW APF/NAPLES AT 22Z -- APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY STALLED NORTH OF A NAPLES TO PALM BEACH CORRIDOR...THIS STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COLLIER OR PERHAPS NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY COAST BY AROUND 2300-2330Z. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PER 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 26028185 26248155 26538080 26908012 26288005 25658087 25538130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 23:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 18:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203231013.57695D47FB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032308 ILZ000-KYZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO EXTREME WESTERN KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 032308Z - 040015Z WITH SMALL HAIL REPORTED EARLIER IN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY MO...SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH LINE OF TSTMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL TO NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE AND EXTREME WESTERN KY. THESE LOW TOPPED STORMS /EQUIL LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 15K FT/ ARE OCCURRING IN PRESENCE OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODESTLY HEATED/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ADJUSTED 22Z RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE UP TO 400 J/KG MUCAPE. ANY REMAINING HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER COOLS. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH... 37888892 37878830 37578837 37048873 37218945 37718914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 00:08:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 19:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204000914.F21A6D4812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040008 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30... VALID 040008Z - 040145Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 30 WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY IN THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 30 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IN ADDITION...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY. AS THE STRONG LIFT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LARGER MCS AND DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWD THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 SOUTHEAST OF THE TALLAHASSEE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN THROUGH SHIFTS EWD TONIGHT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION...LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEST OF WW 30 LATE THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB... 29428462 29688578 30148714 30618775 31188761 31688709 31218543 30968442 30828224 30768176 30078151 29408188 29328256 29378363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 02:50:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 21:50:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204025029.AF637D4BA1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040249 FLZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040249Z - 040445Z LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SUPERCELL MOVES EWD INTO THE MIAMI AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELL IS ONGOING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MCS IN SRN FL. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SWLYS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELL. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWP IN SRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM MATURES...A BOWING STRUCTURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THE MIAMI AREA INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 25248060 25358087 25688088 25848085 25978058 25968030 25948015 25798012 25388030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 05:23:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 00:23:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204052403.1271ED5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040523 FLZ000-GAZ000-040700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32... VALID 040523Z - 040700Z A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NRN FL. THE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL OCCUR. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES DRIFTS EWD...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS NRN FL. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28708246 28858315 29128340 29788328 30478254 30818161 30398102 29698119 29028162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 07:19:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 02:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204072020.D41DCD562B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040719 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/FAR SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32... VALID 040719Z - 040815Z A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA TO FAR SRN SC. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A NEW WW. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32 HAS CONTINUED TO STABILIZE AND FOR THE MOST PART BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. THUS...MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY REMAINING STORMS...GIVEN MOST NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL TO GA/CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 29958385 30828306 32388263 32818124 32488029 30818134 29878127 29278105 28758214 28638272 29428346 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 09:50:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 04:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204095024.E36B2D5435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040949 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040949Z - 041115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NRN FL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 09Z EXTENDED FROM NERN GA SWWD TO SWRN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT ARE WEAK...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...IS AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION FOR NEAR SURFACE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. INCREASING EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30538522 32368430 33068370 33458254 33158130 32198062 30798122 30448150 30198214 30198383 30258524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 14:45:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 09:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204144533.260EFD566E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041444 FLZ000-041645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041444Z - 041645Z LINE OF TSTMS IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS S FL AND KEYS THROUGH FORENOON HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS THAT -- WHILE LARGELY BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- STILL MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN MRGL SVR POTENTIAL AND LIMITED AREA AFFECTED. INFLOW LAYER IS FCST TO BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND REACHES ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES...EVERGLADES AND KEYS. HIGHEST AMBIENT THETAE IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER KEYS...WHERE MARINE AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO APCH 80 WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED EYW RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS PALM BEACH/BROWARD/SERN COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY FROM SFC DIABATIC HEATING. KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT CONTINUED LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FEATURES...WITHIN WHICH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT AND FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE 0-3 KM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION...FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC SHOULD VEER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW... 27248050 27358025 27358015 27127999 26697993 25918003 25438014 24988041 24738070 24528132 24448176 24468242 24638300 24668273 24668217 24818145 25228124 25628139 25808177 26378155 26378125 26568100 26748092 26788056 27108046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 16:57:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 11:57:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204165743.6A7DCD567A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041656 NCZ000-SCZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041656Z - 041900Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING -- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC THETAE. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. 40-50 KT NONCONVECTIVE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INVOF CHS...AS POCKETS OF LLJ MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION. WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021 36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691 34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 17:04:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 12:04:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204170457.4A433D5683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041704 COR NCZ000-SCZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041704Z - 041900Z CORRECTED FOR TEXT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING -- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC THETAE. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD FROM LLJ AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION. WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021 36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691 34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 18:10:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 13:10:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204181043.85539D5686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041809 OHZ000-MIZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 041809Z - 042245Z PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z. MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43758266 42948258 41868293 40928230 39758282 39108328 39018358 39178420 39608472 41808439 42608415 43728341 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 18:52:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 13:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204185305.EF2F2D568A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041852 WAZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WA CASCADES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 041852Z - 042315Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS AUGMENTED BY 00 HOUR RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FT. AS VERTICAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2000-2500 FT BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS SAMPLED IN 2-5 KM LAYER IN ACARS SOUNDINGS /EAST OF SEATTLE/ WILL CREATE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48972088 48592062 47242106 46662131 46212161 46162200 46282221 46482224 47052197 47322170 48032166 48442196 48712211 48962205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 21:40:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 16:40:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204214117.0A56CD46C9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042140 NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS NERN NC..EXTREME S-CENTRAL MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042140Z - 042315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING NWD ACROSS SERN VA WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT HAS ARCHED NWD ACROSS VA/NC BORDER AND THROUGH RIC AREA. FRONT MAY REACH WRN SHORE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC RIVER AREA...INCLUDING SRN FRINGES DC METRO...BEFORE NIGHTFALL. MOST OF SERN VA IS IN MOIST/WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND TEMPS PEAKING MID 60S TO 70 F. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES 300-700 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELONGATED LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT. TWO PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS -- LOCATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR. HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH BOW OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS CROSSING WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35977707 35637805 36057831 36367863 37497854 38447710 38187631 37787624 37437631 36907596 36777612 36547589 36197647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 01:18:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 20:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205011900.26676D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050117 MIZ000-050545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 050117Z - 050545Z MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS OCCLUDING/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 989 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT 01Z. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WRAPPING WESTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN PRESENCE OF STRONG UVVS. AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...MID LEVEL /800-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BANDING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES. 00Z DETROIT RAOB FEATURES DEEPLY SATURATED /1.5 KM/ DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. COUPLED WITH AMPLE UVVS...AND ENHANCED BY MOIST TRAJECTORIES OFF OF LAKE HURON...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH WINDS -- AS SEEN IN LOWEST FEW KM TRENDS OF DETROIT/ALPENA WSR-88D VADS -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42948245 42188291 41998331 42088381 42398420 43698429 44788525 45038539 45488506 45698455 45588398 45368356 44858328 44578324 44088347 43848323 44048298 43978273 43868258 43428246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 03:19:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 22:19:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205031931.9A73FD47ED@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050318 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050318Z - 050445Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO ACROSS SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AREA. DUE TO THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH INTENSIFYING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING IMPULSE. POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. INFLOW FROM WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN NJ WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN PA THROUGH CNTRL NJ. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... 39567564 40257614 40627529 40347467 39717503 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:51:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:51:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205055147.6366DD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050550 MIZ000-051015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 050550Z - 051015Z MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. MID LEVEL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ASSOCIATED 986 MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 05 UTC. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS INCREASED SINCE 04 UTC OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONGOING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS LATEST RUC AND 00 UTC NAM INDICATE STRONG UVVS /Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ALONG NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL OCCLUSION THROUGH 12 UTC. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE AND ASCENT SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL 10 TO 12 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. ..BRIGHT.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45508504 45688470 45528400 45228339 44838332 44328333 44118356 43808386 43608373 44008312 43968288 43798265 43358249 43128259 42968267 42818287 42728326 42898393 43338413 43698439 44098454 44678519 45158529 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 20:54:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 15:54:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060206205440.3CD3DD46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062053 NYZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062053Z - 070130Z HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS LEWIS/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...FURTHER ENHANCING ONGOING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...HIGHLIGHTED BY MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WELL ORGANIZED/LONG CONNECTED BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THIS SINGLE BAND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER UPSTREAM LAKES /NAMELY HURON/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA. AS SUGGESTED BY WRF-4KM/18Z RUC GUIDANCE...A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE EXISTING SINGLE BAND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS TRAJECTORIES TREND TOWARD THE NW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IN PRESENCE OF 3 KM INVERSION HEIGHTS/MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES. ..GUYER.. 02/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43877636 44187514 44077440 43547456 43257625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 12:22:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 07:22:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210122205.2C2BED4927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101221 ARZ000-MOZ000-101715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 101221Z - 101715Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR NRN AR BY AFTERNOON WITH RATES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN MO SWWD THROUGH NWRN AR...SRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD TODAY WITH CP AIR SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING TRANSPORTED NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. MEANWHILE A NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE FROM CNTRL AR NWWD INTO NERN OK. A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN IN AR...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE EFFECTS OF WET BULB COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION LOWER THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO BELOW FREEZING. ..DIAL.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35339073 34749235 34919401 35859423 36529375 36859146 36429046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 21:18:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 16:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210211901.371ABD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102117 LAZ000-TXZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102117Z - 102315Z LINE OF STRONG TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND PARTS OF SWRN LA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND INTENSE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM 20 NE VCT TO 35 SE UTS TO 25 NW POE. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION INHIBITING STRONGER UPDRAFTS UNTIL RECENTLY. IT APPEARS THAT LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT COMBINED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAVE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED THE MID LEVEL INHIBITION AND PROMOTED UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LINE OF FORCED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE HOU METRO AND THEN INTO SWRN LA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LEWPS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF. ..CARBIN.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... 28729548 28509681 29399601 30499477 31349323 30799214 30159179 29479181 28699466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 22:05:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 17:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210220526.824AAD4957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102204 TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 102204Z - 110300Z ...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR... LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EWD FROM ERN AR/WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/SRN KY. SNOW RATES ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MEMPHIS AREA...WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW ARE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW. LATEST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW VERY WELL. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY OPERATIONAL MODELS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35868991 36498828 36618555 35698597 34969011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 00:10:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 19:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211001026.32805D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110009 LAZ000-MSZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110009Z - 110215Z A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN LA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN LA IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 28989055 29289229 29449299 29949321 30579241 30559138 30128898 29398876 28788925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:31:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:31:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211053106.E2BF8D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110528 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110528 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110528Z - 110700Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SE LA...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS IN THE LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN US. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS LA WHERE A DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING EWD. THE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING THE LINE OF STORMS. THE MOBILE AL 88D VWP AT 0500Z SHOWS VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE REMOTELY POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS. DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 28798952 29119017 29738993 30958798 30528669 29278801  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 06:30:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 01:30:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211063051.9945DD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110629 NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-111030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...FAR NRN AL...FAR NRN GA...AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 110629Z - 111030Z PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING RATE OF CHANGE TOWARDS 12Z. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SMOKY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 1 IN/HR. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY WAY OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PROVIDING BROAD UPWARD MOTION OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS RUNNING NORTH-TO-SOUTH FROM CENTRAL AL INTO MIDDLE TN. TO THE LEFT OF THIS TROUGH...LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. TOWARDS 12Z...AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS FAR NRN AL AND ERN TN. FARTHER TO THE EAST...RUC/ETA/GFS MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS PUNCHING NORTH THROUGH GA BY 12Z. EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...SOME OF THIS WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SMOKY MTN REGION TOWARDS 12Z. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH LIFT TO COOL THE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES IN THESE AREAS TO CHANGE RAIN TO ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 12Z. ..GRAMS.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN... 36598385 36298544 35328678 34448735 34568543 34858323 35998187 36498265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 12:25:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 07:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211122518.24918D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111222 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-111615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...NWRN NC...ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN WV...WRN THROUGH NRN VA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 111222Z - 111615Z SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WRN VA WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM .5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING ENEWD THROUGH ERN TN AND EXTREME ERN KY IN WAKE OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMATION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA. AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED PATCHY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS FROM NERN TN...WRN NC INTO WV AND SWRN VA. THE MID DRY SLOT MAY TEMPORARILY LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT SPREADS NEWD. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED EXIT REGION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KY THROUGH SRN WV AND WRN AND NRN VA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK... 39127745 38137761 37147982 36058217 36038380 36668462 37478439 38638251 39387933  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 18:16:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 13:16:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211181648.CC8A3D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111814 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/NRN AND WRN VA/WRN AND CNTRL MD/SRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111814Z - 112315Z ...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW REDEVELOP EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST SATELLITE/WV LOOPS INDICATE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SWD INTO SW MO...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM SW VA INTO CNTRL GA. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC LOW IS DEEPENING NEAR AUGUSTA GA WHERE MODEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTN WILL BE IF NEW HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OR IF BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/WV WILL JUST PIVOT EWD WITH TIME. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MORE INTENSE FROM THE WV PANHANDLE E TO SRN NJ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN KY/WV WHERE STRONGEST LIFT IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MODERATE SNOW RATES THIS AFTN. FARTHER EAST...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA AND THEN NWD THROUGH THE WRN SUBURBS OF DC. EAST OF THIS LINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DC LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 36318218 37498354 39348051 39877854 39987758 40147611 39797576 39087726 36907886 36607984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 00:57:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 19:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212005736.547B6D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120056 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-120700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/DELMARVA THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120056Z - 120700Z ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AS MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS SHIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NC...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING INITIAL BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE. THE MOST INTENSE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN UPPER CENTER IS NEAR PAH. NEXT BAROCLINIC LEAF IS NOW FORMING FROM SE PA/NRN MD/NJ...AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL HAS AN ELY COMPONENT AS NOTED ON 00Z WAL /WALLOPS ISLAND VA/ SOUNDING. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SRN DE/ERN SHORE OF MD...WHERE SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCATIONS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM NEAR DULLES TO PHILADELPHIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON TO TRENTON. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /850-650MB/ WILL SUPPORT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW...WITH HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. ..TAYLOR.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39177491 38047727 38927863 39827802 42137352 42117211 41467094 40717264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 06:52:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 01:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212065237.0C434D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120651 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-121145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA...SE PA/NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 120651Z - 121145Z MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FAR NE VA/CNTRL MD THROUGH SE PA/NRN NJ AND SE NY OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN PER HR WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCAL RATES UP TO 3 IN PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 3O TO 40 MPH AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. CLASSIC NOREASTER WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MD/VA COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. INTENSE LOW AND MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FROM THE DELMARVA NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 700 TO 600 MB AROUND 100 MILES TO THE NW FROM IAD TO PTW TO HPN WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. BANDED PRECIP HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THIS DEFORMATION AREA AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 3 IN PER HR...AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT THUNDERSNOW IN THE PHL METAR AND NLDN LIGHTNING STRIKES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RUC AND NAM 850 MB PROGS STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL COLD CONVEYOR BELT WITH 55 TO 65 KT NE WINDS BY 12Z. THIS STRENGTHENING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE DOX AND DIX VAD PROFILERS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z. ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39347757 40427679 41337525 42087400 42587277 42607135 41687002 41347080 41277167 40917252 40537394 39727457 39117548 38797598 38647635 38467741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 11:29:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 06:29:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212112912.0C956D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121128 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-121530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...NJ...SERN PA...CT...RI...MA...SRN VT...SRN NH...ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121128Z - 121530Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN ME. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE SW INCLUDING NRN VA...MD AND SRN NJ BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SRN NJ. THIS FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN AREA OF ASCENT AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A 120+ KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THE NWWD TRANSPORT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR DATA SHOW WELL ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN VA THROUGH MA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW OCCASIONAL STRIKES ACROSS SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND CT. THE MID LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SPREADING INTO ERN ME. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT LIKELY. ..DIAL.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 44896862 42897251 39937632 38457711 38187499 40577193 42426917 43976758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 18:19:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 13:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212181952.A5267D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121818 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT/RI/MA/SERN NH/ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 121818Z - 130015Z VERY HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS POWERFUL NOREASTER TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. AT 18Z...985MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING BETWEEN ACK AND BUOY 44008 WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SOUTH OF BID. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSE JET DYNAMICS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3MB PER HOUR IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BAND OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL /2-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ HAS DRIFTED EAST FROM NRN NJ/NYC/SWRN CT REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND WAS NOW SITUATED FROM LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MA AND SERN NH. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WERE FORMING WITHIN ZONE OF PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX NW OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...FROM ERN MA TO THE COAST OF MAINE. VERY STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NW OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...WHILE FORCING TO SUSTAIN BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WANES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM ERN MA/SRN NH TO SRN MAINE WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW PRODUCTION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50KT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 45766783 42447305 40647429 39967279 41577009 44866655 45666745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:40:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004018.8A468D464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160038 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-160545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160038Z - 160545Z ONGOING SNOW OCCURRING OVER SERN WY WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN NE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS OVER ERN UT INTO SRN WY INDICATIVE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER WRN CO AT 23 UTC WAS RESULTING IN STRONG NELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NE PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY. CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND ADVANCING MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 42020641 42380549 42540473 42310360 41960295 41400268 40740326 40940497 41070610 41180642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:41:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004132.5EAC9D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160040 NEZ000-SDZ000-160645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160040Z - 160645Z PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN SD WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOCAL HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH 06Z. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL EXIST IN A CORRIDOR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A 40SE KAIA-KONL-35E KYKN LINE. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BAND OF 25-35DBZ SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG/N OF AN E-W ORIENTED H85-H7 FRONT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN 18Z MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. RECENT TRENDS IN PROFILERS/VWPS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE H85 FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO BACK AND ACCELERATE ACROSS KS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE RESULTANT STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN NEB AND...EVENTUALLY...EXTREME SERN SD. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO THE PNHDL /SEE MCD #141/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED TOO FAR N OVER SRN/CNTRL SD WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 1-2 G/KG OF MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS WRN/NCNTRL NEB. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 06Z. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42379664 41679921 41090070 40930193 41370246 41990255 42390227 42700097 43149821 43359670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:41:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:41:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004157.C214AD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160038 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-160545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160038Z - 160545Z ONGOING SNOW OCCURRING OVER SERN WY WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN NE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS OVER ERN UT INTO SRN WY INDICATIVE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER WRN CO AT 23 UTC WAS RESULTING IN STRONG NELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NE PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY. CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND ADVANCING MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 42020641 42380549 42540473 42310360 41960295 41400268 40740326 40940497 41070610 41180642  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:46:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:46:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004648.5B79DD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160045 WIZ000-160645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160045Z - 160645Z A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03 UTC AND 06 UTC. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN EMBEDDED BANDS/CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS FORCING IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER...WITH WEAK UPRIGHT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE ABOUT 50 J/KG/ REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS NRN IL BY 03 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...NAM SHOWED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FROM NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF SRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND SLANTWISE INSTABILITY PRODUCING BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD AFTER 06 UTC. 00 UTC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW 32F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WET BULB COOLING LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR AS SNOW. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... 43658978 43858872 43448772 42768823 42708984 43009029 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 04:41:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 23:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216044136.E696ED4690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160440 MIZ000-160945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 160440Z - 160945Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OVER CENTRAL MI THROUGH 10Z...ALONG AND ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS TO NEAR FLINT. NEAR SURFACE CAA SUPPORTED BY WEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL OFFSET STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW THIS AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND LESS THAN 50 MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRANSLATE FROM ECENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 10Z. SEVERAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWBANDS WILL RESULT IN THIS AREA WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45468411 44938645 44008685 43048675 42608625 42768507 42928363 43358269 43778257 44908321 45268337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 11:17:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 06:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216111709.34F25D468F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161116 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-161615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...EXTREME NRN MO...SERN MN...SRN THROUGH N CNTRL WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET VALID 161116Z - 161615Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM CNTRL AND NRN IA THROUGH SERN MN AND MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL WI. RATES MAY INCREASE TO LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN IL. EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXTENDS FROM NRN IND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO NWRN OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING FROM THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM IA NEWD THROUGH WI THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM IA THROUGH S CNTRL WI. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA ARE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW STRIKES ACROSS SERN IA. FARTHER S FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN IL...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTES TO AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..DIAL.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 44518764 42698829 40749111 39739431 41559591 43349563 44849233 45388889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 15:42:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 10:42:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216154204.AFB10D4963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161541 INZ000-ILZ000-161745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161541Z - 161745Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER NWRN IL...COLOCATED WITH LOCAL PRESSURE FALL REGION...JUST NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM...SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME HAIL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN IL TOWARD THE CHI METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDITIONS WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40898957 42038914 42288777 41478701 40498813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 16:07:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 11:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216160717.E0149D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161606 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN WI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI/SRN AND ERN UPPER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 161606Z - 162200Z WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WI...AND WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN AND ERN UPPER MI. FURTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...LOW-LEVEL WARMING SPREADING NWD WILL YIELD A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WITH TIME. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN IN/NWRN OH AND ACROSS LK ERIE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ATTM ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF MI COUNTIES AND WWD INTO THE CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREAS. PRECIPITATION N OF THIS RAIN AREA -- ACROSS CENTRAL WI -- IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH 1"/HR RATES LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS. WITH TIME...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH TIME ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF LOWER MI...WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD AND MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN THIRD AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. THOUGH HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN MI WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WINTER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE -- PARTICULARLY WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..GOSS.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44459168 46538532 46458426 44828262 43648276 42848334 42958537 42978753 43098946 43959150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 18:46:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 13:46:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216184653.BE0C7D496F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161845 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...TO NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161845Z - 162015Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF IL INTO SRN MO... CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WCNTRL IL INTO SWRN MO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IL...STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH INITIAL DISCRETE STRUCTURES BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 36899370 39449082 41568752 40538740 36829190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 19:11:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 14:11:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216191152.23775D4944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161910 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161910Z - 162045Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG ACROSS SRN/ERN OK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM OVER NCNTRL TX. AS A RESULT...INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS ERN OK WHERE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SPREADING SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX BEFORE MOVING INTO WRN AR. SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33859592 35219584 36429457 36089292 33639429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 21:27:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 16:27:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216212755.D5212D497C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162126 INZ000-MIZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162126Z - 162300Z ...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY 22Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN IND. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR... SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MATURE FROM NERN IL...SWWD INTO SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NWRN PORTIONS OF IND BY 22Z. STORM MODE IS BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN SECTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41628709 42228632 41768485 39648522 39298731 40398745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 22:56:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 17:56:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216225631.4A702D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162255 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SWRN IND...FAR W KY...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS...ERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34... VALID 162255Z - 170030Z CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS ECNTRL IL NWD...BUT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISCRETE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LATE THIS AFTN. 2-8KM MEAN WIND IS MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/STORMS AT FARTHER S LATITUDES. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY REMAIN ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 33. BASED ON 22Z OBSERVATIONS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED/STRONGER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST TORNADO/LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM SRN IL SWD INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER N...WHILE AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINEAR MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY EVOLVING ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO IS EXTRAPOLATED ALONG THE OH/MS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 00-01Z. CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS LIMITED FARTHER E...BUT STRONG SLY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGHER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT MAY RAPIDLY ALTER THERMODYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN IND...FAR W KY AND EXTREME SRN IL SWD INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 0 ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36929236 38329025 41038800 41498739 41458689 40568708 40018721 38958751 38458748 38438586 36758704 34218940 34769151 36739062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 23:01:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 18:01:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216230135.B6C24D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162300 COR INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SWRN IND...FAR W KY...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS...ERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34... VALID 162300Z - 170030Z CORRECTED FOR EXTRA WORDING CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS ECNTRL IL NWD...BUT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISCRETE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LATE THIS AFTN. 2-8KM MEAN WIND IS MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/STORMS AT FARTHER S LATITUDES. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY REMAIN ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 33. BASED ON 22Z OBSERVATIONS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED/STRONGER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST TORNADO/LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM SRN IL SWD INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER N...WHILE AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINEAR MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY EVOLVING ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO IS EXTRAPOLATED ALONG THE OH/MS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 00-01Z. CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS LIMITED FARTHER E...BUT STRONG SLY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGHER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT MAY RAPIDLY ALTER THERMODYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN IND...FAR W KY AND EXTREME SRN IL SWD INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36929236 38329025 41038800 41498739 41458689 40568708 40018721 38958751 38458748 38438586 36758704 34218940 34769151 36739062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 00:00:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 19:00:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217000003.6375AD4974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162359 MIZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/SCNTRL LWR MI...ERN/SRN IND...NWRN/WCNTRL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35... VALID 162359Z - 170100Z LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWWD INTO ECNTRL IL. WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN EXPANDING NWD INTO SRN LWR MI LATE THIS AFTN ON VERY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN IND AND WRN OH NWD INTO SERN LWR MI BENEATH H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SCNTRL LWR MI AND NCNTRL IND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. MEAN WIND COMPONENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE LINE HAVE BACKED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...MAKING LINEAR SEGMENTS THE DOMINANT MODE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG. THESE CELLS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES...LOCALLY ACCELERATING THE LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. A WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 35 TO INCLUDE SERN LWR MI. FARTHER S...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBLEMATIC. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CNTRL IND DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...PROBABLY SINCE IT IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND NORTH OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF TSTMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF MORE ORGANIZATION...A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS WRN OH OR EXTREME ERN IND. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... 40218721 41818586 42738504 43138372 43188279 42888251 42798258 41628305 40898375 39628437 38818503 38758576 38648717 38848784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 15:13:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 10:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217151401.A674CD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171513 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...SRN VT...SRN NH...WRN MA...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171513Z - 171715Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS... STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN THE WAKE OF FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED SEVERAL BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY THAT ARE RACING EWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION REGION OF SRN MA INTO WRN CT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING/HEATING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE LINE. LIGHTNING SHOULD DECREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE IN A BROAD SENSE BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED AREAL EXTENT/TIME OF EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 02/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41537476 43767297 43357188 41407329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 18:44:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 13:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217184406.D92A2D4976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171843 MIZ000-172345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 171843Z - 172345Z SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN LAKE-EFFECT BANDS ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR WITH LOCAL RATES POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/HR TOWARDS EVENING. ONGOING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE-INDUCED SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS LATER TODAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HELP STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH RUC/NAM INDICATE THE 700 TO 600 MB MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE TO SHIFT ESE FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA BY 00Z. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A WEAK MESOLOW JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RUC/NAM INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AND INCREASING CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW PROVIDING GREATER FETCH ALONG THE SRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EVEN THOUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL DUE TO THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM NRN MARQUETTE TO CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. ..GRAMS.. 02/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 47088849 47498789 46828455 46038416 45938545 46258724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 03:14:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 22:14:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218031442.ABE62D4962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180313 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL AR...EXTREME SRN MO...FAR W KY...WRN TN AND EXTREME NWRN MS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 180313Z - 180915Z WINTER PCPN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z...THEN FARTHER EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY/MID-SOUTH BETWEEN 06-09Z. WEAK H5 WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER OK AT 00Z AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. GPS PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN AR/OK SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT PCPN RATES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM NOSE AROUND H85 AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK AND NRN AR THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY LATER TONIGHT. 00Z OBSERVATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN RECENT RUC GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. GIVEN SOME COOLING OF THE COLUMN VIA WET BULB PROCESSES...A PHASE CHANGE FROM SLEET TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NERN OK...SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR THROUGH 06Z. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE LOWER PART OF THE COLUMN MOISTENS. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 DEGREES C WITHIN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LIQUID RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET COULD OCCUR ACROSS ECNTRL OK EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN AR. FARTHER S...00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE OF AROUND 6 DEGREES C JUST BELOW H7. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY APPROACH 32 DEGREES F LATER TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A KFSM-KBVX-NEAR KMEM LINE. HOURLY RATES WILL BE 0.05-0.10 INCH. PCPN WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD EAST OF THE MS RVR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE OH RVR...WITH SLEET ACROSS WRN TN N OF KMEM. MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS NWRN MS AND WRN TN S OF KMEM. ..RACY.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36219597 36719463 36779360 36779144 36769029 36808876 36508818 36038816 35548855 34758972 34509094 34889279 35089428 35409582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 11:22:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 06:22:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218112221.4608CD465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181121 TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NERN GA...EXTREME SRN KY. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 181121Z - 181715Z MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR SFC. PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS. MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE. THIS LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH. ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN. THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID-DAY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422 35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194 34769235 35239230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 11:26:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 06:26:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218112659.2A4BBD4927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181126 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NWRN GA...EXTREME SRN KY. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 181126Z - 181715Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE DIRECTION MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR SFC. PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS. MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE. THIS LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH. ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN. THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID-DAY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422 35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194 34769235 35239230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 06:46:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 01:46:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060219064615.A34BAD465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190644 TXZ000-OKZ000-191245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/NCNTRL TX/OK CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 190644Z - 191245Z WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NW TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX AND OK. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TX TO NEAR MCALESTER OK. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE IMPULSES WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NCNTRL NM WITH A STRONGER WAVE FROM BAJA INTO NRN SONORA. AT ANY RATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION. THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH HAS PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...IT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING WINTER PCPN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ITS 00Z QPF SOLN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NW TX...BEFORE SPREADING INTO CNTRL/SRN OK BETWEEN 09-12Z /ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THAT TIME/. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 650 MB ON THE OUN SOUNDING WILL INHIBIT DENDRITIC PROCESSES FROM OCCURRING UNTIL ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OCCURS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW TX...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET INITIALLY...WHICH AGREES WITH PTYPE ALGORITHMS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PCPN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FZ RAIN ACROSS NW TX /LUBBOCK AREA/. ACROSS NCNTRL TX...PCPN WILL MAINLY BE FZRA/FZDZ DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NOTED ON 00Z FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB. ..TAYLOR.. 02/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32159867 32960288 33630302 35310245 36199880 36109593 35519459 32659463 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 06:31:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 01:31:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060220063159.0E14ED4505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200630 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-201230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NRN MS/NRN AL/NW GA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 200630Z - 201230Z ...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERRUNNING PCPN ATOP ARCTIC AIRMASS PRESENTS IDEAL SETUP FOR PROLONGED FZRA EVENT... SUBTROPICAL MOIST CONVEYOR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS WEST TO BAJA. SUBTLE IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN. IN ADDITION...850 MB EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS TIGHT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE TX/NRN LA/NRN GA. STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET /AS OBSERVED BY AREA VWP DATA/ WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LFK ACROSS CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS JUST NORTH OF JAN INTO NRN AL AND EXTREME NW GA. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND SHV DEPICT A DEEP WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS STRONG INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO PCPN TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FZRA WILL LIKELY BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT POLK LA TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO BIRMINGHAM AL. SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE...SO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO 32F. HOURLY PCPN RATES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...ICING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30979359 32409485 34349377 34879152 35068893 34878415 33858433 32548842 31219240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 12:41:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 07:41:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060220124118.1BE3CD4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201239 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-201815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AR...NRN LA...W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MS...N-CENTRAL AL. CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 201239Z - 201815Z FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE BETWEEN NWRN TX/SWRN OK REGION AND EXTREME NRN GA/SERN TN...HOWEVER GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CRITERIA RATES AT LEAST .05 INCH/3-HOUR WILL REMAIN OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...N-CENTRAL MS AND N-CENTRAL AL BEFORE 18Z. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG CHA...15 N TCL...20 SSW CBM...50 NNE HEZ...POE...LFK. OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM SHV-JAN...AS WELL AS FCST RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SUBFREEZING SFC LOCATIONS...SHOW DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC ZONE OF MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WET BULB COOLING OF SFC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HEAT BY LIQUID PRECIP...FROM WARMER LAYER ALOFT...SHOULD RESULT IN NWD DRIFT OF FREEZING LINE. SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT -- EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL JET CORE -- WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ELONGATED CONVEYOR OF ASCENT THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...STRONGEST FROM NEAR MS RIVER EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. THEREAFTER...RUC AND SREF PROGS INDICATE FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND FREEZING LINE WILL DRIFT NWD MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE TO COLD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM S-N...WHEREVER PRECIP STILL LINGERS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32439054 31949149 31299261 31069313 31169329 31419349 32589369 33219309 33389236 34228878 34598548 33718689 33368831 32788976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 06:36:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 01:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224063638.1571CD43A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240634 NDZ000-MTZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240634Z - 241130Z ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN SD. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY... STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS. ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN OOZ RAP/BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING 100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE EAST. ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW... 48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773 46910153 47400696  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 06:41:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 01:41:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224064203.D8E01D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240639 COR NDZ000-MTZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240639Z - 241130Z CORRECTED FOR STATE IN DISCUSSION ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN ND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY... STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS. ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN 00Z RAP/BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING 100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE EAST. ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW... 48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773 46910153 47400696  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 12:03:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 07:03:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224120412.886DDD4407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241200 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-241800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241200Z - 241800Z BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP W-E ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST SNOW /HOURLY RATES 1-1.5 INCHES/ WILL FALL 40-50 MILES N-S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30W KIMT-35SW KDLH-KFAR. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD INTO ERN SD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO SWRN MN BY 18Z. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE ALREADY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHORT TERM MODELS ALL AGREE THAT H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MN/WI PER RECENT SREF AND 06Z ETA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS SCENARIO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY WITH A 30-35 DBZ SNOWBAND VCNTY KFAR. AFTER THE COLUMN BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 06Z ETA SOLUTIONS. THIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS AN EARLIER TIMING DOWNSTREAM. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE NCNTRL-NERN MN AREA BY 16Z...AND INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI NEAR/JUST AFTER 18Z. GIVEN 15-20:1 RATIOS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. ..RACY.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 47139659 47599561 47589381 47319235 46989106 46668946 46348880 45748890 45468926 45368982 45399084 45629221 45859360 46079485 46319600 46679645  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 18:15:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 13:15:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224181626.504ABD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241812 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI...SRN/WRN U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 241812Z - 250015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN WI AND PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW ...40-50 MILES WIDE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO NERN WI...SWRN/SCENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY FROM IMT TO 35 S OF PLN. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN WILL BE LIKELY. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD INTO SRN WI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SATURATION OF LOW-MID LEVELS OVER SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ESEWD AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX INTO NERN WI...THE SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS /BELOW 850 MB/ AS EVIDENT BY SURFACE OBS OVER NERN WI/SRN U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI...HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER /PER RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVELY/ SHOULD AID IN A SATURATION AND SURFACE HVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH... 47009440 47429382 47309276 46839030 46128718 45548463 45068442 44558484 44528564 44598651 44878755 45128846 45508974 46179231 46489375 46729414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 18:55:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 13:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224185542.26D5AD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241853 TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL NM...EXTREME SE AZ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241853Z - 242030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OROGRAPHY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN LAYER MOISTENING WITH BROADER SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG. AS THIS OCCURS...POSSIBLY BY AROUND 21Z NEAR AND WEST OF LAS CRUCES/EL PASO...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS. MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA. ..KERR.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... 31360909 32140931 32940843 32820739 32400682 32090660 31830647 31710646  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 00:40:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225004102.399CCD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250038 TXZ000-NMZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX/SRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250038Z - 250245Z THREAT FOR HAIL/A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND AREAL THREAT. EVENING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE RATES...AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NWRN MEXICO. THIS PROFILE CONFIRMS MODEL/OA FIELDS...NOW SHOWING MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS RAOB AND EL PASO TX WSR-88D VWP ALSO DEPICT 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32140724 32810671 33150553 32840388 31570375 30710334 30190383 30180469 30620493 31360598 31390609 31730638 31760730  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 01:19:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225011939.A2049D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250117 MIZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250117Z - 250515Z A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 04 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS FORCING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NEWD OVER LAKE HURON AND SRN ONTARIO. AT 0030 UTC...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED 30 TO 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CHARLEVOIX COUNTY EWD TO ABOUT OGEMAW COUNTY IN NRN LOWER MI. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN REGION OF DEEP SATURATION WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 04 UTC. LATEST RUC PREDICTION THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/STRONG ASCENT INTO SRN ONTARIO THEREAFTER. ONGOING SNOW RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04 UTC AND THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... 45578520 45418430 44958336 44418324 43868238 43158244 43568325 44328463 44608572 45018597  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:06:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225170737.73A3AD43C7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251704 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA..MS...AL...AND THE FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251704Z - 251830Z THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RISK OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA SEEMS LOW OR LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE NEW ORLEANS/LAKE PONCHARTRAIN AREA. FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS STILL UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SURFACE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS...BASED MOSTLY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HAIL COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA IN STRONGEST STORMS. INVERSION LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST...MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WAVE. ..KERR.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29749320 30629233 30918986 31038877 31108757 31038644 30738524 30358473 29648463  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:47:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:47:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225174831.F0BB4D43A0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251745 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN AND CENTRAL VT/NH...SWRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 251745Z - 252345Z HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN NY INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN A 30-40 MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM ART TO 20 S OF MPV TO LCI TO PWM. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OUT OF MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT SWRN ME...BY 00Z. LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NY/PA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE VORT LOBE TRACK AND NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES MOST OF NRN NY...NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT SFC/RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NWRN NY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER /8-10 KFT/ OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AND LOW SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS /20:1/ DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ..CROSBIE.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44127012 44497103 44777433 44507563 44027604 43577574 43467395 43337260 43197140 43487029  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 17:59:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 12:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060228180017.119F1D43C7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281758 CAZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281758Z - 282000Z ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA SHOWN BY THE RUC. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...NEW STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWD ALONG THE THERMAL AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 88D VWPS IN THE AREA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 39252276 39692252 39762169 39422130 38102054 37332029 37092095 37252159 38302225  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 20:38:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 15:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060228203924.B5E4FD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282036 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT...SE ID...FAR WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282036Z - 282230Z STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN UT...SE ID AND FAR WRN WY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN UT INTO ERN NV. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW. A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS WRN UT NWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 88D VWPS SHOW WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE DOMINANT MODE WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES F SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE MOST VIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... 42731153 42631094 42131043 41331035 40261117 39131255 38321405 38151516 38451592 39041588 39671505 40421361 41921226 42451187  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 18:29:17 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 13:29:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060201182956.2F63A8B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011828 LAZ000-TXZ000-012030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011828Z - 012030Z SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN TX...LIKELY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL REGION ATTM...BENEATH STRONG CAP EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOBS. HOWEVER...UVV -- AIDED BY STRONG UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM -- IS ALLOWING CAP TO SLOWLY LIFT/WEAKEN...AS CONFIRMED BY 17Z CRP RAOB. THOUGH CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM REMAINS WEAK/ELEVATED ABOVE STRONG CAP...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CAP TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. COMBINATION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO EVOLVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 02/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 28119824 29659809 31349690 32099476 31759306 29949284 28229618 27689758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 20:46:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 15:46:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060201204656.180BF8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012045 TXZ000-012215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...E TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012045Z - 012215Z NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF E TX NW OF WW 0024...AS CONVECTION INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INTENSIFY INVOF TPL/AUS/CLL WITHIN LARGER AREA OF WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX. WITH 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AND 45 KT SHEAR PER LATEST LDB /LEDBETTER TX/ PROFILER...STORMS WILL LIKELY ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH TIME. GIVEN RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..GOSS.. 02/01/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30699804 32199479 31189389 29539726 30059800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 00:49:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 19:49:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202004957.1E79B8B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020048 LAZ000-TXZ000-020215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24... VALID 020048Z - 020215Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE AND OTHER CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 24 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW OVER SCNTRL TX WITH A STRONG DRY SLOT PUNCHING EWD INTO SE TX ATTM. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE HOUSTON AREA AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SRN LA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT. SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN LA CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 F...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ACROSS SE TX. THIS SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29379144 29269290 29069400 29009464 29259507 29849520 30269513 30579450 30869338 30909197 30659117 30229105 29699108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:44:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:44:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202054506.C0D328B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020544 LAZ000-020715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25... VALID 020544Z - 020715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF WW 25 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW IN SCNTRL TX WITH A DRY SLOT ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD ENTERING SW LA ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE 55 TO 60 F DEGREE RANGE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK AHEAD OF THE LINE...A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SWRN LA IS CREATING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29069079 29259212 29539267 30349272 30709203 30559078 30339010 29808986 29239016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 07:53:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 02:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202075400.4173F8B38A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020752 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / FAR SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020752Z - 020915Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE OF WW 25 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN LA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED SE OF POE WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER SERN LA INTO SRN MS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO COUPLING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS OVER S-CNTRL LA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGER FORCING HAS BEGUN TO ACT ON SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NRN GULF. WHILE 06Z SLIDELL SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ TO 50-60 KTS THROUGH 02/12Z WILL SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD. THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS/SWRN AL AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29979027 30499030 30738958 30908782 30738724 30248706 29818732 29469001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 09:05:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 04:05:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202090608.0FE118B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020905 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-021030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020905Z - 021030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A SEPARATE..CYCLONICALLY CURVED CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS OF 0850Z IN STRONGLY DIVERGENT REGION AHEAD OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -16 C AT 500 MB ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG /. THIS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE WINNFIELD LA PROFILER WITH WINDS VEERING THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT OPENS AND LIFTS NEWD. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE OVER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED /I.E. STABLE/ SURFACE AIR MASS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER S...MORE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER CNTRL INTO SWRN LA ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING SEWD. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HERE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31869374 32309363 32899287 33089201 32939104 32319101 31549164 31179230 31079316 31319366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 10:09:46 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 05:09:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202101024.1FF1B8B39A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021009 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA / SRN MS / SWRN AL / WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26... VALID 021009Z - 021145Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 0950Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX BOW ECHO STRUCTURE EVOLVING OVER FAR SERN LA INTO SRN MS WITH A SYSTEM MOVEMENT OF 245/40-45 KTS. THE CYCLONIC LINE END VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT CIRCULATION...THOUGH RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS PORTION OF MCS IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS FEATURE N OF WW 26 INTO LAMAR...FORREST AND PERHAPS PERRY COUNTIES BY 1030Z. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST N OF WW AREA...THIS PORTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MESOCYCLONE AND NON-DESCENDING TYPE TORNADOES WILL EXIST ALONG CREST OF THE BOW ECHO SWWD ALONG THE WAVY TRAILING FLANK WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A MORE DISCRETE HP SUPERCELL 35 WSW OF BVE. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE APEX OF THIS BOW IS N OF RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH SRN PORTION OF MCS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INVOF OF THIS WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF BOWING PORTION OF MCS WHERE RADAR DATA SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE /MARC/. EXPECT THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOBILE AREA BY 1100-1130Z. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30989067 31058649 29368646 29379067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 12:13:33 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 07:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202121403.840928B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021213 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-021345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL / SERN AL AND SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021213Z - 021345Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 13Z AS MCS APPROACHES DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 1155Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS...LEWPS AND HP SUPERCELLS FROM 35 E MOB TO 35 SE BVE WITH A SYSTEM MOTION OF 250/40-45 KTS. NRN PORTION OF THIS MCS /OVER BALDWIN COUNTY AL/ REMAINS N OF PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS S OF MOB TO ROUGHLY 65 SSW OF AAF. GIVEN THE RAPID ENEWD MOTION OF THE MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AS THEY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PNHDL/SERN AL AND SWRN GA AFTER 13Z. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST...COUPLED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED...THOUGH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. ..MEAD.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30918633 31338608 31458528 31258434 31028390 30318379 29928405 29538505 29578586 30068642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 16:42:20 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 11:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202164250.A74438B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021641 FLZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021641Z - 021845Z TSTMS MOVING FROM GULF WATERS ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS GULF/FRANKLIN COUNTIES MAY BECOME SFC-BASED. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW ECHO MODE...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME FOR WW. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...BOTH OVER THOSE AREAS AND INLAND 20-30 NM TOWARD I-10 CORRIDOR...FROM BOTH MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND MORE DISCRETE BUT ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MCS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM S AAF AS OF 16Z...AND THIS FRONT MAY MOVE ASHORE BRIEFLY E OF CAPE SAN BLAS AND BEFORE PASSAGE OF TSTM LINE. 12Z TLH RAOB WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF MORE DRY/STABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR MASS THAN ENVIRONMENT NOW EVIDENT S OF AAF. MUCAPES ARE ESTIMATED 1500-2000 J/KG S OF MARINE FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 70 F AS OBSERVED ALONG/S OF FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH BACKED FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH 200-500 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE... 29978550 30218536 30518468 30518402 30068394 29878432 29538500 29688541 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 21:05:30 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 16:05:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202210600.E7C938B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022104 FLZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022104Z - 022300Z SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST. DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930S BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST GEORGE ISLAND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD TOWARD GNV. AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO CAROLINAS. THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64 DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333 29908410 29528507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 21:09:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 16:09:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202211002.EFFCA8B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022108 COR FLZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022108Z - 022300Z CORRECTED FOR TIME TYPO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER GULF AND MOVING INLAND FROM AAF AREA AROUND APALACHEE BAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEAR TERM FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO MODES WITH MESOCYCLONES...PER MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS NEAR COAST. DAMAGING WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT 1930Z BETWEEN MAINLAND AND ST GEORGE ISLAND. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE/WARM FRONT BETWEEN BUOY SGOF1 AND AAF...BASICALLY ONSHORE SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY...THEN ARCHING SEWD-NEWD TOWARD GNV. AIR MASS ACROSS PENINSULA IS WELL MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST OVER GULF WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. ANY VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH BOTH RUC PROGS AND SFC ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOWING PRESSURE FALLS SHIFTING EWD INTO CAROLINAS. THIS MAY RESULT IN MOIST ADVECTION INLAND FROM CEDAR KEY/CTY AREA NWD TO I-10 AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES EWD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LAKE CITY AREA. INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS HAS RELATIVELY WEAK SFC DEW POINTS -- 61-64 DEG F. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLGTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC THIS LIMITS MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS TO UNDER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO MAINTAIN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING INTENSITY BETWEEN CLOUD BASE AND SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... 29688536 30098515 30428451 30548227 29678265 29528333 29908410 29528507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 22:55:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 17:55:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060202225542.BBFD38B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022254 FLZ000-GAZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL / EXTREME SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 022254Z - 030100Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS WELL. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING. THUS...WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES MOVING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR PARALLEL. ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 03Z WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THREAT WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ADVECTION OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR MASS INLAND FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRUE SURFACE BASED STORMS. FURTHER...GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS ALSO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH VALUES OF OVER 1.50 INCHES NOW INTO NRN FL. OFFSHORE BUOYS ALSO INDICATE WEDGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ADVECTING NEWD. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...FORECAST STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MAY SLOW WITH TIME. THUS...LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 02/02/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29728529 30658368 31588138 31378096 29648112 29058275 28688431 28758531 29318604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 01:00:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 20:00:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203010131.9D3D98B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030100 FLZ000-GAZ000-030230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST THU FEB 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND FAR SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27... VALID 030100Z - 030230Z A TRAINING LINE OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN FL. A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PART OF WW 27. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN FL. A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. IN ADDITION...88D VWP IN NRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55-60 KT WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER THIS EVENING AS THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31118207 31048166 30608132 30078142 29708222 29288355 29328401 29568436 29968414 30658318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 06:53:43 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 01:53:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203065416.097888B376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030653 FLZ000-030830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030653Z - 030830Z ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND COUNTIES OF DIXIE...LEVY...CITRUS BY 0730Z...AND THEN POTENTIALLY FARTHER INLAND FROM UNION TO SUMTER COUNTIES. WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN GULF /65 SW CTY/...WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AROUND 45 KT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY EWD FROM THE BOW ACROSS THE NRN FL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH THE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY EXITING A REGION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR NRN FL MODIFIED WITH THIS SURFACE MOISTURE VALUE RESULTS IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE BOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF FL THAT HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND SLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING THE GREATER MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE BOUNDARY...THERE MAY BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29658339 29838311 30128236 30078203 29208184 28948181 28678224 28608268 28968274 29378330 29508344 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 13:02:23 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 08:02:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203130248.E8D14D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031301 FLZ000-031330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031301Z - 031330Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FL...ESPECIALLY FOR WEST CENTRAL FL. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE 1245Z POSITION ANALYZED FROM NRN BREVARD COUNTY SWWD TO NRN POLK COUNTY AND THEN WWD TO NRN PINELLAS COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF INTO WEST CENTRAL FL AT 12Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION AS IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA. ALSO THIS WOULD ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SURFACE HEATING REQUIRED TO WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL FL SUGGESTING THE CAP SHOULD EASILY WEAKEN BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..PETERS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... 28388270 28388223 28628138 28938086 28468072 28008059 27578080 27388186 27198255 27618285 28088289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:20:07 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:20:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203162048.D6B5FD47F0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031620 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031619 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E TX...NRN AND W-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME SERN AR...W-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031619Z - 031845Z HAIL POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ATTM IN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL TX TO W-CENTRAL MS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THIS REGIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED SW SHV INVOF TX/LA BORDER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THIS SWATH...THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN FURTHER OVER THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH 1. MIDLEVEL COOLING OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN 12Z RAOBS THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT SEWD AHEAD OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND 2. WAA IN LOW LEVELS...ALONG AND ATOP STABLE LAYER NOTED IN OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS. COMBINING THOSE FACTORS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING YIELDS ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PRECLUDE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...HOWEVER VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS THROUGH LOW-MIDLEVELS OF BUOYANT LAYER ARE EVIDENT BASED ON VWP/PROFILER WINDS...MODIFIED SHV/FWD RAOBS AND RUC PROGS. 55-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ELEVATED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246 30809424 31099510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:38:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:38:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203163917.781B8D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031638 FLZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28... VALID 031638Z - 031845Z SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 16:40:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 11:40:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203164125.8D638D47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031640 COR FLZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28... VALID 031640Z - 031845Z CORRECTED FOR WW TYPE SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VRB WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OKEECHOBEE/HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES THEN OVER SRN PORTIONS TAMPA BAY...MOVING S 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THAT AREA. MARGINAL HAIL/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH TSTMS MOVING OFF GULF AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TBW REGION. TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THAT ACTIVITY GIVEN EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF BOUNDARY...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST TSTMS WILL UNDERCUT THEMSELVES WITH STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR BY MOVING OVER OUTFLOW POOL. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER WW PERIOD MAY BE WITH MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AT LEAST 30-40 NM S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AREA OF STRONGEST DIABATIC SFC HEATING...SUCH DISTANCE GIVING TSTMS TIME TO MATURE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD PERSIST OVER AREAS JUST S OF BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27178013 26678110 26418212 27328281 27768269 28328067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 18:21:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 13:21:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203182140.54AF3D47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031820 MEZ000-032215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ME CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 031820Z - 032215Z AFTER INITIAL SNOW...A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.05-0.10 INCH OR GREATER APPEARS LIKELY...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 997 MB SURFACE LOW INVOF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD /TIED TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/ SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH INITIAL PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW...ENCROACHING MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AMIDST STRONG WAA PROFILES AS SEEN IN 12Z RAOBS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. LATEST RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A GENERAL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 20Z-22Z ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY N/NW OF A MILLINOCKET TO PRESQUE ISLE AXIS. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 46576790 46036835 45806892 45816954 46046997 46267013 46537008 47036969 47376920 47396833 47136779 46936766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 19:40:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 14:40:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203194036.7F6ACD47DF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031939 FLZ000-032045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 28... VALID 031939Z - 032045Z WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 20Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SW EDGE OF TAMPA BAY SEWD ACROSS DE SOTO COUNTY THEN EWD OVER NRN PORTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS MAXIMIZED AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE EWD...GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SWRN COAST. RIGHT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT OPTIMALLY ELONGATES HODOGRAPHS AND MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY...CELLS CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN A LOW-MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...WITH ACCOMPANYING/BRIEF WINDOW OF HAIL OR TORNADO RISK. S OF BOUNDARY...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HODOGRAPH AREA. ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM TSTMS ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THICK ANVIL CANOPY STREAMING FROM MCS OVER OPEN GULF MAY LIMIT FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA. ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN OR RE-ISSUE WW. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27918293 28038217 27508077 27188018 26428044 25838188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 20:35:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 15:35:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203203531.D3F75D47F4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032034 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA AND CENTRAL/ERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29... VALID 032034Z - 032230Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF E EDGE OF PRIMARY PRECIP BAND...WHERE A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE PERSISTED. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING HAIL...OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY ABOUT 23Z E OF THIS WW IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. SUPERCELLS CROSSING MS RIVER FROM TENSAS PARISH...AND EXITING WARREN COUNTY MS...ARE MOVING VARIABLY TOWARD ENE THROUGH ESE AT 30-35 KT...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS. ASSOCIATED LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES DIAMETER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BENEATH THIS CONVECTION DURING PAST 2 HOURS...AS WELL AS A 61 KT GUST ESTIMATE FROM MADISON PARISH. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WW. KINEMATICALLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT WITH RIGHTMOST OBSERVED MOTIONS INPUT...0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG STILL CAN BE DERIVED FROM JAN VWP. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX... 31469517 32449382 33289167 33459064 32799028 31169246 30809424 31099510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 21:20:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 16:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203212104.1636ED47EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032119 FLZ000-032315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032119Z - 032315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER GULF COAST BETWEEN PFN-AQQ AND SEWD THROUGH FL COASTAL BEND. DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS WELL ONCE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE NEAR COAST. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS NERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO DESTABILIZATION...WEAK CINH...AND LIFT ALONG/N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AT 21Z FROM SRQ AREA NWWD TO NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER NW TO ROUGHLY 65 S PFN. BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFT NWD OVER THIS REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO ITS N AS OUTFLOW POOL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOIST/WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE. ALTHOUGH SOME DIABATIC SFC COOLING MAY RESTRICT INCREASE IN SBCAPE...SUCH A STABLE LAYER WOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAY NOT PRECLUDE EFFECTIVE PARCEL FROM REACHING SFC. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED MUCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR 60-65 KT IN BUOYANT LAYER...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. LEFT-MOVING/ANTICYCLONIC SUPERCELL ALREADY IS EVIDENT INVOF NWRN END OF BOUNDARY...ABOUT 60 S PFN AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30138578 30428503 30658404 30528273 29748210 28588191 28388245 28438271 28908281 29068313 29598350 30028405 29678472 29538510 29658536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 22:11:14 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 17:11:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203221140.1F5C7D47FD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032210 FLZ000-032345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032210Z - 032345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM -- AROUND 30 SW APF/NAPLES AT 22Z -- APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY STALLED NORTH OF A NAPLES TO PALM BEACH CORRIDOR...THIS STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COLLIER OR PERHAPS NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY COAST BY AROUND 2300-2330Z. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PER 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 26028185 26248155 26538080 26908012 26288005 25658087 25538130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 23:09:49 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 18:09:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060203231013.57695D47FB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032308 ILZ000-KYZ000-040015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO EXTREME WESTERN KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 032308Z - 040015Z WITH SMALL HAIL REPORTED EARLIER IN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY MO...SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH LINE OF TSTMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL TO NEAR THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE AND EXTREME WESTERN KY. THESE LOW TOPPED STORMS /EQUIL LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 15K FT/ ARE OCCURRING IN PRESENCE OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODESTLY HEATED/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ADJUSTED 22Z RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE UP TO 400 J/KG MUCAPE. ANY REMAINING HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER COOLS. ..GUYER.. 02/03/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH... 37888892 37878830 37578837 37048873 37218945 37718914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 00:08:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 19:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204000914.F21A6D4812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040008 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30... VALID 040008Z - 040145Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 30 WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY IN THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW 30 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FL. IN ADDITION...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY. AS THE STRONG LIFT SHIFTS EWD THIS EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LARGER MCS AND DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWD THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 SOUTHEAST OF THE TALLAHASSEE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. OTHERWISE...REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN THROUGH SHIFTS EWD TONIGHT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION...LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEST OF WW 30 LATE THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB... 29428462 29688578 30148714 30618775 31188761 31688709 31218543 30968442 30828224 30768176 30078151 29408188 29328256 29378363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 02:50:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 21:50:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204025029.AF637D4BA1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040249 FLZ000-040445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040249Z - 040445Z LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SUPERCELL MOVES EWD INTO THE MIAMI AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELL IS ONGOING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MCS IN SRN FL. THE MCS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SWLYS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE SUPERCELL. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWP IN SRN FL SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. AS THE STORM MATURES...A BOWING STRUCTURE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THE MIAMI AREA INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL... 25248060 25358087 25688088 25848085 25978058 25968030 25948015 25798012 25388030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 05:23:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 00:23:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204052403.1271ED5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040523 FLZ000-GAZ000-040700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 32... VALID 040523Z - 040700Z A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN FL MAY HAVE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ALONG A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NRN FL. THE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL OCCUR. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES DRIFTS EWD...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS NRN FL. ..BROYLES.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 28708246 28858315 29128340 29788328 30478254 30818161 30398102 29698119 29028162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 07:19:56 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 02:19:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204072020.D41DCD562B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040719 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/SERN GA/FAR SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32... VALID 040719Z - 040815Z A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA TO FAR SRN SC. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A NEW WW. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 32 HAS CONTINUED TO STABILIZE AND FOR THE MOST PART BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. THUS...MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY REMAINING STORMS...GIVEN MOST NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS NRN FL TO GA/CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 29958385 30828306 32388263 32818124 32488029 30818134 29878127 29278105 28758214 28638272 29428346 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 09:50:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 04:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204095024.E36B2D5435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040949 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040949 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN GA AND FAR NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040949Z - 041115Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NRN FL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 09Z EXTENDED FROM NERN GA SWWD TO SWRN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT ARE WEAK...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...IS AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION FOR NEAR SURFACE TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. INCREASING EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30538522 32368430 33068370 33458254 33158130 32198062 30798122 30448150 30198214 30198383 30258524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 14:45:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 09:45:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204144533.260EFD566E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041444 FLZ000-041645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0844 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041444Z - 041645Z LINE OF TSTMS IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS S FL AND KEYS THROUGH FORENOON HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS THAT -- WHILE LARGELY BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- STILL MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM GIVEN MRGL SVR POTENTIAL AND LIMITED AREA AFFECTED. INFLOW LAYER IS FCST TO BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND REACHES ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES...EVERGLADES AND KEYS. HIGHEST AMBIENT THETAE IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER KEYS...WHERE MARINE AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO APCH 80 WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED EYW RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS PALM BEACH/BROWARD/SERN COLLIER AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY FROM SFC DIABATIC HEATING. KINEMATIC PROFILES SUPPORT CONTINUED LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FEATURES...WITHIN WHICH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. SOME BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS EVIDENT AND FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE 0-3 KM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION...FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC SHOULD VEER WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW... 27248050 27358025 27358015 27127999 26697993 25918003 25438014 24988041 24738070 24528132 24448176 24468242 24638300 24668273 24668217 24818145 25228124 25628139 25808177 26378155 26378125 26568100 26748092 26788056 27108046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 16:57:21 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 11:57:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204165743.6A7DCD567A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041656 NCZ000-SCZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041656Z - 041900Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING -- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC THETAE. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. 40-50 KT NONCONVECTIVE GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INVOF CHS...AS POCKETS OF LLJ MIX TO SFC. EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION. WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021 36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691 34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 17:04:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 12:04:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204170457.4A433D5683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041704 COR NCZ000-SCZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041704Z - 041900Z CORRECTED FOR TEXT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WITH CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN HALF SC...INTO CENTRAL/SRN NC. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IS UNDERWAY AS WEAK SFC HEATING -- MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER -- COMBINES WITH WAA TO BOOST SFC THETAE. AS A RESULT...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH WEAKENING AND LIFTED PARCELS OVER REGION ARE BECOMING SFC BASED WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION...EXTENDING AT 1640Z FROM ABOUT 20 SW CLT TO 20 W NBC AND MOVING NEWD 30-35 KT. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDING WINDS YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEARS FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...I.E. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ELONGATED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD FROM LLJ AS WELL...RESULTING IN DAMAGING GUST THREAT WITH CONVECTION OVER REGION. WARM FRONT ANALYZED INVOF VA BORDER SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE INTO EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN PORTION VA AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32138069 32678091 34018093 35058126 35898141 36538021 36537585 35627543 35227548 35027608 34587648 34667691 34367759 33807793 33857853 33507903 33097922 32667987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 18:10:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 13:10:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204181043.85539D5686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041809 OHZ000-MIZ000-042245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 041809Z - 042245Z PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z. MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... 43758266 42948258 41868293 40928230 39758282 39108328 39018358 39178420 39608472 41808439 42608415 43728341 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 18:52:44 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 13:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204185305.EF2F2D568A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041852 WAZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WA CASCADES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 041852Z - 042315Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WA CASCADES INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS AUGMENTED BY 00 HOUR RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 FT. AS VERTICAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 2000-2500 FT BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 50-60 KTS SAMPLED IN 2-5 KM LAYER IN ACARS SOUNDINGS /EAST OF SEATTLE/ WILL CREATE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... 48972088 48592062 47242106 46662131 46212161 46162200 46282221 46482224 47052197 47322170 48032166 48442196 48712211 48962205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 21:40:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 16:40:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060204214117.0A56CD46C9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042140 NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-042315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...PORTIONS NERN NC..EXTREME S-CENTRAL MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042140Z - 042315Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING NWD ACROSS SERN VA WITH WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT HAS ARCHED NWD ACROSS VA/NC BORDER AND THROUGH RIC AREA. FRONT MAY REACH WRN SHORE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC RIVER AREA...INCLUDING SRN FRINGES DC METRO...BEFORE NIGHTFALL. MOST OF SERN VA IS IN MOIST/WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND TEMPS PEAKING MID 60S TO 70 F. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES 300-700 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELONGATED LOW-MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEARS. 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT. TWO PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS -- LOCATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR. HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH BOW OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR ELEMENTS CROSSING WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35977707 35637805 36057831 36367863 37497854 38447710 38187631 37787624 37437631 36907596 36777612 36547589 36197647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 01:18:39 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 20:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205011900.26676D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050117 MIZ000-050545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 050117Z - 050545Z MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS OCCLUDING/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 989 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON AT 01Z. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WRAPPING WESTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN IN PRESENCE OF STRONG UVVS. AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...MID LEVEL /800-600 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BANDING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES. 00Z DETROIT RAOB FEATURES DEEPLY SATURATED /1.5 KM/ DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. COUPLED WITH AMPLE UVVS...AND ENHANCED BY MOIST TRAJECTORIES OFF OF LAKE HURON...SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. IN ADDITION...INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTH WINDS -- AS SEEN IN LOWEST FEW KM TRENDS OF DETROIT/ALPENA WSR-88D VADS -- WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. ..GUYER.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42948245 42188291 41998331 42088381 42398420 43698429 44788525 45038539 45488506 45698455 45588398 45368356 44858328 44578324 44088347 43848323 44048298 43978273 43868258 43428246 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 03:19:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 22:19:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205031931.9A73FD47ED@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050318 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050318Z - 050445Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO ACROSS SERN PA AND EXTREME WRN NJ INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AREA. DUE TO THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCED LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 35 KT. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH INTENSIFYING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NWD EJECTING IMPULSE. POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. INFLOW FROM WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN NJ WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN PA THROUGH CNTRL NJ. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... 39567564 40257614 40627529 40347467 39717503 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:51:27 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:51:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060205055147.6366DD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050550 MIZ000-051015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 050550Z - 051015Z MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. MID LEVEL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ASSOCIATED 986 MB SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP OF LAKE ONTARIO AT 05 UTC. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS INCREASED SINCE 04 UTC OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ONGOING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS LATEST RUC AND 00 UTC NAM INDICATE STRONG UVVS /Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ALONG NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL OCCLUSION THROUGH 12 UTC. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING AROUND CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE AND ASCENT SUPPORT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL 10 TO 12 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. ..BRIGHT.. 02/05/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45508504 45688470 45528400 45228339 44838332 44328333 44118356 43808386 43608373 44008312 43968288 43798265 43358249 43128259 42968267 42818287 42728326 42898393 43338413 43698439 44098454 44678519 45158529 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 20:54:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 15:54:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060206205440.3CD3DD46C8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062053 NYZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062053Z - 070130Z HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF ORGANIZED BAND ACROSS LEWIS/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON/NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...FURTHER ENHANCING ONGOING HEAVY SNOW INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOW RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...HIGHLIGHTED BY MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WELL ORGANIZED/LONG CONNECTED BAND ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THIS SINGLE BAND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER UPSTREAM LAKES /NAMELY HURON/ PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA. AS SUGGESTED BY WRF-4KM/18Z RUC GUIDANCE...A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE EXISTING SINGLE BAND SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS TRAJECTORIES TREND TOWARD THE NW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IN PRESENCE OF 3 KM INVERSION HEIGHTS/MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE 2-3 IN/HR SNOW RATES. ..GUYER.. 02/06/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43877636 44187514 44077440 43547456 43257625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 12:22:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 07:22:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210122205.2C2BED4927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101221 ARZ000-MOZ000-101715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 101221Z - 101715Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR NRN AR BY AFTERNOON WITH RATES BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN MO SWWD THROUGH NWRN AR...SRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD TODAY WITH CP AIR SPREADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING TRANSPORTED NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM FROM A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. MEANWHILE A NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR INTO EXTREME SRN MO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE FROM CNTRL AR NWWD INTO NERN OK. A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN IN AR...BUT THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE EFFECTS OF WET BULB COOLING AND COLD ADVECTION LOWER THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO BELOW FREEZING. ..DIAL.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 35339073 34749235 34919401 35859423 36529375 36859146 36429046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 21:18:58 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 16:18:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210211901.371ABD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102117 LAZ000-TXZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX AND SERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102117Z - 102315Z LINE OF STRONG TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND PARTS OF SWRN LA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND INTENSE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LINE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM 20 NE VCT TO 35 SE UTS TO 25 NW POE. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AS STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AIR MASS ALONG THE GULF WAS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION INHIBITING STRONGER UPDRAFTS UNTIL RECENTLY. IT APPEARS THAT LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT COMBINED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAVE EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED THE MID LEVEL INHIBITION AND PROMOTED UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LINE OF FORCED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE HOU METRO AND THEN INTO SWRN LA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE SUFFICIENT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND LEWPS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF. ..CARBIN.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP... 28729548 28509681 29399601 30499477 31349323 30799214 30159179 29479181 28699466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 22:05:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 17:05:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060210220526.824AAD4957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102204 TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 102204Z - 110300Z ...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR... LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING EWD FROM ERN AR/WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/SRN KY. SNOW RATES ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MEMPHIS AREA...WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW ARE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW. LATEST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW VERY WELL. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY OPERATIONAL MODELS. ..TAYLOR.. 02/10/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 35868991 36498828 36618555 35698597 34969011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 00:10:24 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 19:10:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211001026.32805D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110009 LAZ000-MSZ000-110215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110009Z - 110215Z A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN LA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN LA IS CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL AND ISOLATED THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 28989055 29289229 29449299 29949321 30579241 30559138 30128898 29398876 28788925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:31:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:31:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211053106.E2BF8D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110528 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110528 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110528Z - 110700Z A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE SE LA...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS IN THE LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN US. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS LA WHERE A DRY SLOT IS PUNCHING EWD. THE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING THE LINE OF STORMS. THE MOBILE AL 88D VWP AT 0500Z SHOWS VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE REMOTELY POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS. DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 28798952 29119017 29738993 30958798 30528669 29278801  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 06:30:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 01:30:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211063051.9945DD45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110629 NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-111030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...FAR NRN AL...FAR NRN GA...AND FAR WRN NC CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 110629Z - 111030Z PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING RATE OF CHANGE TOWARDS 12Z. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SMOKY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 1 IN/HR. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY WAY OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PROVIDING BROAD UPWARD MOTION OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS RUNNING NORTH-TO-SOUTH FROM CENTRAL AL INTO MIDDLE TN. TO THE LEFT OF THIS TROUGH...LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. TOWARDS 12Z...AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ACCELERATE ACROSS FAR NRN AL AND ERN TN. FARTHER TO THE EAST...RUC/ETA/GFS MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS PUNCHING NORTH THROUGH GA BY 12Z. EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION...SOME OF THIS WILL PUSH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SMOKY MTN REGION TOWARDS 12Z. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH LIFT TO COOL THE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES IN THESE AREAS TO CHANGE RAIN TO ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 12Z. ..GRAMS.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN... 36598385 36298544 35328678 34448735 34568543 34858323 35998187 36498265 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 12:25:16 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 07:25:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211122518.24918D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111222 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-111615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...NWRN NC...ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN WV...WRN THROUGH NRN VA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 111222Z - 111615Z SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WRN VA WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM .5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING ENEWD THROUGH ERN TN AND EXTREME ERN KY IN WAKE OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMATION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA. AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED PATCHY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS FROM NERN TN...WRN NC INTO WV AND SWRN VA. THE MID DRY SLOT MAY TEMPORARILY LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT SPREADS NEWD. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED EXIT REGION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KY THROUGH SRN WV AND WRN AND NRN VA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK... 39127745 38137761 37147982 36058217 36038380 36668462 37478439 38638251 39387933  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 18:16:47 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 13:16:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060211181648.CC8A3D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111814 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/NRN AND WRN VA/WRN AND CNTRL MD/SRN PA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111814Z - 112315Z ...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AS BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW REDEVELOP EWD FROM THE APPALACHIANS... LATEST SATELLITE/WV LOOPS INDICATE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SWD INTO SW MO...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING FROM SW VA INTO CNTRL GA. AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC LOW IS DEEPENING NEAR AUGUSTA GA WHERE MODEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTN WILL BE IF NEW HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OR IF BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/WV WILL JUST PIVOT EWD WITH TIME. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES MORE INTENSE FROM THE WV PANHANDLE E TO SRN NJ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ERN KY/WV WHERE STRONGEST LIFT IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL LIKELY FAVOR MODERATE SNOW RATES THIS AFTN. FARTHER EAST...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL VA AND THEN NWD THROUGH THE WRN SUBURBS OF DC. EAST OF THIS LINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMICS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DC LATER THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 02/11/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 36318218 37498354 39348051 39877854 39987758 40147611 39797576 39087726 36907886 36607984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 00:57:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 19:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212005736.547B6D468B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120056 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-120700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/DELMARVA THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 120056Z - 120700Z ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING AS MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWS SHIFT NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS ERN NC...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING INITIAL BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE. THE MOST INTENSE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN UPPER CENTER IS NEAR PAH. NEXT BAROCLINIC LEAF IS NOW FORMING FROM SE PA/NRN MD/NJ...AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL HAS AN ELY COMPONENT AS NOTED ON 00Z WAL /WALLOPS ISLAND VA/ SOUNDING. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SRN DE/ERN SHORE OF MD...WHERE SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOCATIONS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM NEAR DULLES TO PHILADELPHIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON TO TRENTON. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /850-650MB/ WILL SUPPORT HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW...WITH HOURLY SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. ..TAYLOR.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39177491 38047727 38927863 39827802 42137352 42117211 41467094 40717264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 06:52:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 01:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212065237.0C434D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120651 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-121145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA...SE PA/NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 120651Z - 121145Z MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FAR NE VA/CNTRL MD THROUGH SE PA/NRN NJ AND SE NY OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW INTENSIFYING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN PER HR WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCAL RATES UP TO 3 IN PER HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 3O TO 40 MPH AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. CLASSIC NOREASTER WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MD/VA COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. INTENSE LOW AND MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FROM THE DELMARVA NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 700 TO 600 MB AROUND 100 MILES TO THE NW FROM IAD TO PTW TO HPN WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. BANDED PRECIP HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THIS DEFORMATION AREA AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 3 IN PER HR...AS EVIDENCED BY RECENT THUNDERSNOW IN THE PHL METAR AND NLDN LIGHTNING STRIKES. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RUC AND NAM 850 MB PROGS STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL COLD CONVEYOR BELT WITH 55 TO 65 KT NE WINDS BY 12Z. THIS STRENGTHENING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE DOX AND DIX VAD PROFILERS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z. ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 39347757 40427679 41337525 42087400 42587277 42607135 41687002 41347080 41277167 40917252 40537394 39727457 39117548 38797598 38647635 38467741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 11:29:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 06:29:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212112912.0C956D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121128 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-121530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...NJ...SERN PA...CT...RI...MA...SRN VT...SRN NH...ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121128Z - 121530Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD INTO ERN ME. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE SW INCLUDING NRN VA...MD AND SRN NJ BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SRN NJ. THIS FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN AREA OF ASCENT AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A 120+ KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THE NWWD TRANSPORT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR DATA SHOW WELL ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NERN VA THROUGH MA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 MB-500 MB LAYER ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW OCCASIONAL STRIKES ACROSS SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND CT. THE MID LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SPREADING INTO ERN ME. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT LIKELY. ..DIAL.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 44896862 42897251 39937632 38457711 38187499 40577193 42426917 43976758 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 18:19:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 13:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060212181952.A5267D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121818 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT/RI/MA/SERN NH/ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 121818Z - 130015Z VERY HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SNOWFALL WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS POWERFUL NOREASTER TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. AT 18Z...985MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE PASSING BETWEEN ACK AND BUOY 44008 WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SOUTH OF BID. GIVEN SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSE JET DYNAMICS...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3MB PER HOUR IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BAND OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL /2-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ HAS DRIFTED EAST FROM NRN NJ/NYC/SWRN CT REGION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND WAS NOW SITUATED FROM LONG ISLAND NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MA AND SERN NH. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WERE FORMING WITHIN ZONE OF PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX NW OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...FROM ERN MA TO THE COAST OF MAINE. VERY STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO THE NW OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...WHILE FORCING TO SUSTAIN BANDED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY WANES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. DEEP LAYER ASCENT FROM ERN MA/SRN NH TO SRN MAINE WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED HEAVY SNOW PRODUCTION. FURTHERMORE...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLD LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50KT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 02/12/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... 45766783 42447305 40647429 39967279 41577009 44866655 45666745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:40:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:40:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004018.8A468D464E@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160038 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-160545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160038Z - 160545Z ONGOING SNOW OCCURRING OVER SERN WY WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN NE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS OVER ERN UT INTO SRN WY INDICATIVE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER WRN CO AT 23 UTC WAS RESULTING IN STRONG NELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NE PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY. CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND ADVANCING MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 42020641 42380549 42540473 42310360 41960295 41400268 40740326 40940497 41070610 41180642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:41:32 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004132.5EAC9D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160040 NEZ000-SDZ000-160645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160040Z - 160645Z PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD INTO EXTREME SERN SD WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LOCAL HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH 06Z. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL EXIST IN A CORRIDOR 30-40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A 40SE KAIA-KONL-35E KYKN LINE. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BAND OF 25-35DBZ SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS NRN NEB LATE THIS AFTN...ALONG/N OF AN E-W ORIENTED H85-H7 FRONT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY EARLIER THAN 18Z MODEL SUITES SUGGESTED. RECENT TRENDS IN PROFILERS/VWPS DATA SUGGEST THAT THE H85 FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO BACK AND ACCELERATE ACROSS KS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER CO. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE RESULTANT STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN NEB AND...EVENTUALLY...EXTREME SERN SD. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL DEVELOPING SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO THE PNHDL /SEE MCD #141/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL SUITE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED TOO FAR N OVER SRN/CNTRL SD WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT TRENDS. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 1-2 G/KG OF MEAN LAYER MIXING RATIO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS WRN/NCNTRL NEB. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 06Z. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42379664 41679921 41090070 40930193 41370246 41990255 42390227 42700097 43149821 43359670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:41:50 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:41:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004157.C214AD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160038 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-160545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160038Z - 160545Z ONGOING SNOW OCCURRING OVER SERN WY WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND EWD INTO WRN NE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS OVER ERN UT INTO SRN WY INDICATIVE OF SHORTWAVE EJECTING EWD FROM LARGE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER WRN CO AT 23 UTC WAS RESULTING IN STRONG NELY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NE PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY. CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND ADVANCING MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 42020641 42380549 42540473 42310360 41960295 41400268 40740326 40940497 41070610 41180642  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 00:46:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 19:46:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216004648.5B79DD45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160045 WIZ000-160645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 160045Z - 160645Z A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 03 UTC AND 06 UTC. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR IN EMBEDDED BANDS/CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS FORCING IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18 UTC NAM IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER...WITH WEAK UPRIGHT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE ABOUT 50 J/KG/ REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS NRN IL BY 03 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...NAM SHOWED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FROM NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF SRN WI THIS EVENING...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND SLANTWISE INSTABILITY PRODUCING BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD AFTER 06 UTC. 00 UTC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW 32F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WET BULB COOLING LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR AS SNOW. ..BRIGHT.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... 43658978 43858872 43448772 42768823 42708984 43009029 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 04:41:37 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 23:41:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216044136.E696ED4690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160440 MIZ000-160945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 160440Z - 160945Z HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OVER CENTRAL MI THROUGH 10Z...ALONG AND ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS TO NEAR FLINT. NEAR SURFACE CAA SUPPORTED BY WEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL OFFSET STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW THIS AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND LESS THAN 50 MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRANSLATE FROM ECENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 10Z. SEVERAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWBANDS WILL RESULT IN THIS AREA WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 45468411 44938645 44008685 43048675 42608625 42768507 42928363 43358269 43778257 44908321 45268337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 11:17:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 06:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216111709.34F25D468F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161116 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-161615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...EXTREME NRN MO...SERN MN...SRN THROUGH N CNTRL WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET VALID 161116Z - 161615Z SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM CNTRL AND NRN IA THROUGH SERN MN AND MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL WI. RATES MAY INCREASE TO LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN IL. EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXTENDS FROM NRN IND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO AND INTO NWRN OK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING FROM THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING FROM IA NEWD THROUGH WI THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM IA THROUGH S CNTRL WI. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA ARE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW STRIKES ACROSS SERN IA. FARTHER S FROM SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN IL...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTES TO AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..DIAL.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 44518764 42698829 40749111 39739431 41559591 43349563 44849233 45388889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 15:42:05 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 10:42:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216154204.AFB10D4963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161541 INZ000-ILZ000-161745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161541Z - 161745Z ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER NWRN IL...COLOCATED WITH LOCAL PRESSURE FALL REGION...JUST NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM...SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME HAIL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN IL TOWARD THE CHI METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDITIONS WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40898957 42038914 42288777 41478701 40498813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 16:07:18 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 11:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216160717.E0149D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161606 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN WI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI/SRN AND ERN UPPER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 161606Z - 162200Z WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WI...AND WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN AND ERN UPPER MI. FURTHER S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...LOW-LEVEL WARMING SPREADING NWD WILL YIELD A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WITH TIME. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN IN/NWRN OH AND ACROSS LK ERIE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ATTM ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF MI COUNTIES AND WWD INTO THE CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREAS. PRECIPITATION N OF THIS RAIN AREA -- ACROSS CENTRAL WI -- IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH 1"/HR RATES LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS. WITH TIME...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL AND NRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER IN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH TIME ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF LOWER MI...WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD AND MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN THIRD AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. THOUGH HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NRN MI WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WINTER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE -- PARTICULARLY WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..GOSS.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 44459168 46538532 46458426 44828262 43648276 42848334 42958537 42978753 43098946 43959150 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 18:46:52 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 13:46:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216184653.BE0C7D496F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161845 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...TO NERN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161845Z - 162015Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF IL INTO SRN MO... CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WCNTRL IL INTO SWRN MO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IL...STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH INITIAL DISCRETE STRUCTURES BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 36899370 39449082 41568752 40538740 36829190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 19:11:51 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 14:11:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216191152.23775D4944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161910 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161910Z - 162045Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG ACROSS SRN/ERN OK AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM OVER NCNTRL TX. AS A RESULT...INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS ERN OK WHERE CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SPREADING SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX BEFORE MOVING INTO WRN AR. SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33859592 35219584 36429457 36089292 33639429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 21:27:54 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 16:27:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216212755.D5212D497C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162126 INZ000-MIZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162126Z - 162300Z ...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY 22Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN IND. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR... SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MATURE FROM NERN IL...SWWD INTO SRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NWRN PORTIONS OF IND BY 22Z. STORM MODE IS BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN SECTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ..DARROW.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 41628709 42228632 41768485 39648522 39298731 40398745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 22:56:31 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 17:56:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216225631.4A702D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162255 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SWRN IND...FAR W KY...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS...ERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34... VALID 162255Z - 170030Z CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS ECNTRL IL NWD...BUT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISCRETE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LATE THIS AFTN. 2-8KM MEAN WIND IS MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/STORMS AT FARTHER S LATITUDES. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY REMAIN ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 33. BASED ON 22Z OBSERVATIONS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED/STRONGER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST TORNADO/LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM SRN IL SWD INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER N...WHILE AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINEAR MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY EVOLVING ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO IS EXTRAPOLATED ALONG THE OH/MS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 00-01Z. CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS LIMITED FARTHER E...BUT STRONG SLY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGHER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT MAY RAPIDLY ALTER THERMODYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN IND...FAR W KY AND EXTREME SRN IL SWD INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 0 ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36929236 38329025 41038800 41498739 41458689 40568708 40018721 38958751 38458748 38438586 36758704 34218940 34769151 36739062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 23:01:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 18:01:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060216230135.B6C24D4968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162300 COR INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL...WRN/SWRN IND...FAR W KY...SERN MO...WRN TN...NWRN MS...ERN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34... VALID 162300Z - 170030Z CORRECTED FOR EXTRA WORDING CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS ECNTRL IL NWD...BUT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISCRETE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO LATE THIS AFTN. 2-8KM MEAN WIND IS MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT/STORMS AT FARTHER S LATITUDES. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY REMAIN ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 33. BASED ON 22Z OBSERVATIONS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED/STRONGER ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS...IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST TORNADO/LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FROM SRN IL SWD INTO THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLYS THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER N...WHILE AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE LINEAR MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY EVOLVING ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO IS EXTRAPOLATED ALONG THE OH/MS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN 00-01Z. CURRENTLY...BUOYANCY IS LIMITED FARTHER E...BUT STRONG SLY FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGHER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT MAY RAPIDLY ALTER THERMODYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...AREAS FROM EXTREME SRN IND...FAR W KY AND EXTREME SRN IL SWD INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36929236 38329025 41038800 41498739 41458689 40568708 40018721 38958751 38458748 38438586 36758704 34218940 34769151 36739062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 00:00:02 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 19:00:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217000003.6375AD4974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162359 MIZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/SCNTRL LWR MI...ERN/SRN IND...NWRN/WCNTRL OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35... VALID 162359Z - 170100Z LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN LWR MI WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWWD INTO ECNTRL IL. WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN EXPANDING NWD INTO SRN LWR MI LATE THIS AFTN ON VERY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN IND AND WRN OH NWD INTO SERN LWR MI BENEATH H5-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEGREES C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW...LOW-TOPPED LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SCNTRL LWR MI AND NCNTRL IND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. MEAN WIND COMPONENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE LINE HAVE BACKED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...MAKING LINEAR SEGMENTS THE DOMINANT MODE. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EMBEDDED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IF AN UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG. THESE CELLS WILL TEND TO EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES...LOCALLY ACCELERATING THE LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. A WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 35 TO INCLUDE SERN LWR MI. FARTHER S...PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER ARE PROBLEMATIC. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CNTRL IND DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...PROBABLY SINCE IT IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND NORTH OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF TSTMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF MORE ORGANIZATION...A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS WRN OH OR EXTREME ERN IND. ..RACY.. 02/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX... 40218721 41818586 42738504 43138372 43188279 42888251 42798258 41628305 40898375 39628437 38818503 38758576 38648717 38848784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 15:13:59 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 10:13:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217151401.A674CD4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171513 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-171715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...SRN VT...SRN NH...WRN MA...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171513Z - 171715Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS... STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN THE WAKE OF FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED SEVERAL BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY THAT ARE RACING EWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION REGION OF SRN MA INTO WRN CT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING/HEATING OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE LINE. LIGHTNING SHOULD DECREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE IN A BROAD SENSE BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED AREAL EXTENT/TIME OF EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 02/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 41537476 43767297 43357188 41407329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 18:44:06 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 13:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060217184406.D92A2D4976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171843 MIZ000-172345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 171843Z - 172345Z SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN LAKE-EFFECT BANDS ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR WITH LOCAL RATES POSSIBLY UP TO 2 IN/HR TOWARDS EVENING. ONGOING MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE-INDUCED SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS LATER TODAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HELP STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH RUC/NAM INDICATE THE 700 TO 600 MB MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE TO SHIFT ESE FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA BY 00Z. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS/VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A WEAK MESOLOW JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. RUC/NAM INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME AND INCREASING CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW PROVIDING GREATER FETCH ALONG THE SRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. EVEN THOUGH DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL DUE TO THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS...HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM NRN MARQUETTE TO CHIPPEWA COUNTIES. ..GRAMS.. 02/17/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 47088849 47498789 46828455 46038416 45938545 46258724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 03:14:40 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 22:14:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218031442.ABE62D4962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180313 TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL OK...NRN/CNTRL AR...EXTREME SRN MO...FAR W KY...WRN TN AND EXTREME NWRN MS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 180313Z - 180915Z WINTER PCPN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z...THEN FARTHER EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY/MID-SOUTH BETWEEN 06-09Z. WEAK H5 WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER OK AT 00Z AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY LATER TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. GPS PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SRN AR/OK SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT...THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT PCPN RATES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM NOSE AROUND H85 AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK AND NRN AR THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY LATER TONIGHT. 00Z OBSERVATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN RECENT RUC GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. GIVEN SOME COOLING OF THE COLUMN VIA WET BULB PROCESSES...A PHASE CHANGE FROM SLEET TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME NERN OK...SRN MO AND EXTREME NRN AR THROUGH 06Z. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE LOWER PART OF THE COLUMN MOISTENS. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 DEGREES C WITHIN THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LIQUID RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVY SLEET COULD OCCUR ACROSS ECNTRL OK EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN AR. FARTHER S...00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE OF AROUND 6 DEGREES C JUST BELOW H7. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY APPROACH 32 DEGREES F LATER TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A KFSM-KBVX-NEAR KMEM LINE. HOURLY RATES WILL BE 0.05-0.10 INCH. PCPN WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD EAST OF THE MS RVR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE OH RVR...WITH SLEET ACROSS WRN TN N OF KMEM. MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS NWRN MS AND WRN TN S OF KMEM. ..RACY.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36219597 36719463 36779360 36779144 36769029 36808876 36508818 36038816 35548855 34758972 34509094 34889279 35089428 35409582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 11:22:19 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 06:22:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218112221.4608CD465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181121 TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NERN GA...EXTREME SRN KY. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 181121Z - 181715Z MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR SFC. PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS. MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE. THIS LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH. ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN. THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID-DAY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422 35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194 34769235 35239230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 11:26:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 06:26:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060218112659.2A4BBD4927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181126 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL...TN...MO BOOT-HEEL...EXTREME NWRN GA...EXTREME SRN KY. CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 181126Z - 181715Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE DIRECTION MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS AR...SERN MO...SRN KY AND TN...WHILE SHIFTING/EXPANDING SWD INTO AREAS OF MS/AL/NWRN GA WHERE SFC TEMPS STILL WERE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 1030Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH .05-.10 INCH/HR RATES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM N-CENTRAL MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL...EXTREME NWRN GA AND PORTIONS SERN TN AS FREEZING LINE SHIFTS SWD THROUGH THIS AREA...IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA AND WET BULB COOLING FROM PRECIP EVAPORATION NEAR SFC. PRECIP PHASE WILL GRADATE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO SNOW WITH NWD EXTENT...WHILE LOW LEVEL COOLING DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONGOING PLUME OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM W-CENTRAL AR TO MID TN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1.5 INCH/HOUR SHOULD OCCUR IN MANY AREAS...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HOUR IN HEAVIER BURSTS. MORE SPOTTY/LIGHT/INTERMITTENT PRECIP MIX IS EXPECTED WSWWD FROM THIS AREA ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ELONGATED...WSW-ENE ORIENTED CONVEYOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA -- ATOP COOLING/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 5-7 KFT DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER IN LOW-MIDLEVELS ATOP FCST FREEZING RAIN ZONE. THIS LAYER WILL BECOME SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE SLEET IS FCST...THEN VANISH OVER FCST SNOW SWATH. ELEVATED MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG -- ROOTED NEAR 700 MB -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR TO NRN AL AND SWRN/MID TN. THIS INDICATES OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS WILL LOCALLY BOOST PRECIP RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN ENVIRONMENT OF 700-750 MB FRONTOGENESIS...AXIS OF WHICH WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MS/AL WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING AROUND MID-DAY. ..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 35699213 36089172 36488942 36668768 36838505 36018422 35798391 35038467 34548568 33788783 33339036 34189194 34769235 35239230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 06:46:11 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 01:46:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060219064615.A34BAD465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190644 TXZ000-OKZ000-191245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/NCNTRL TX/OK CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 190644Z - 191245Z WINTER PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NW TX THROUGH NCNTRL TX AND OK. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST OF LUBBOCK TX TO NEAR MCALESTER OK. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE IMPULSES WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NCNTRL NM WITH A STRONGER WAVE FROM BAJA INTO NRN SONORA. AT ANY RATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION. THE GFS IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH HAS PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...IT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SUGGESTING WINTER PCPN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. ITS 00Z QPF SOLN TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE INITIALLY ACROSS NW TX...BEFORE SPREADING INTO CNTRL/SRN OK BETWEEN 09-12Z /ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE THAT TIME/. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DRY AIR NOTED ABOVE 650 MB ON THE OUN SOUNDING WILL INHIBIT DENDRITIC PROCESSES FROM OCCURRING UNTIL ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OCCURS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NW TX...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET INITIALLY...WHICH AGREES WITH PTYPE ALGORITHMS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PCPN MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/FZ RAIN ACROSS NW TX /LUBBOCK AREA/. ACROSS NCNTRL TX...PCPN WILL MAINLY BE FZRA/FZDZ DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NOTED ON 00Z FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB. ..TAYLOR.. 02/19/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32159867 32960288 33630302 35310245 36199880 36109593 35519459 32659463 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 06:31:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 01:31:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060220063159.0E14ED4505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200630 GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-201230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN LA/NRN MS/NRN AL/NW GA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 200630Z - 201230Z ...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERRUNNING PCPN ATOP ARCTIC AIRMASS PRESENTS IDEAL SETUP FOR PROLONGED FZRA EVENT... SUBTROPICAL MOIST CONVEYOR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDS WEST TO BAJA. SUBTLE IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL MOTION FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN. IN ADDITION...850 MB EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS TIGHT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NE TX/NRN LA/NRN GA. STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET /AS OBSERVED BY AREA VWP DATA/ WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LFK ACROSS CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS JUST NORTH OF JAN INTO NRN AL AND EXTREME NW GA. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM JAN AND SHV DEPICT A DEEP WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS STRONG INVERSION WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO PCPN TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FZRA WILL LIKELY BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT POLK LA TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO BIRMINGHAM AL. SFC WET BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING IN AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE...SO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO 32F. HOURLY PCPN RATES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...ICING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. ..TAYLOR.. 02/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 30979359 32409485 34349377 34879152 35068893 34878415 33858433 32548842 31219240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 12:41:10 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 07:41:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060220124118.1BE3CD4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201239 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-201815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AR...NRN LA...W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MS...N-CENTRAL AL. CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 201239Z - 201815Z FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE BETWEEN NWRN TX/SWRN OK REGION AND EXTREME NRN GA/SERN TN...HOWEVER GREATEST PROBABILITY OF CRITERIA RATES AT LEAST .05 INCH/3-HOUR WILL REMAIN OVER SRN AR...NRN LA...N-CENTRAL MS AND N-CENTRAL AL BEFORE 18Z. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY ALONG CHA...15 N TCL...20 SSW CBM...50 NNE HEZ...POE...LFK. OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS FROM SHV-JAN...AS WELL AS FCST RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SUBFREEZING SFC LOCATIONS...SHOW DEEP SUPERFREEZING LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC ZONE OF MARGINALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WET BULB COOLING OF SFC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HEAT BY LIQUID PRECIP...FROM WARMER LAYER ALOFT...SHOULD RESULT IN NWD DRIFT OF FREEZING LINE. SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT -- EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL JET CORE -- WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ELONGATED CONVEYOR OF ASCENT THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...STRONGEST FROM NEAR MS RIVER EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AL. THEREAFTER...RUC AND SREF PROGS INDICATE FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND FREEZING LINE WILL DRIFT NWD MORE. THIS WILL CAUSE A CHANGE TO COLD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM S-N...WHEREVER PRECIP STILL LINGERS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/20/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 32439054 31949149 31299261 31069313 31169329 31419349 32589369 33219309 33389236 34228878 34598548 33718689 33368831 32788976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 06:36:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 01:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224063638.1571CD43A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240634 NDZ000-MTZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240634Z - 241130Z ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN SD. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY... STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS. ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN OOZ RAP/BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING 100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE EAST. ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW... 48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773 46910153 47400696  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 06:41:35 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 01:41:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224064203.D8E01D432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240639 COR NDZ000-MTZ000-241130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NRN AND CNTRL ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 240639Z - 241130Z CORRECTED FOR STATE IN DISCUSSION ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS BANDED SNOWFALL ORGANIZES OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MT THROUGH NRN ND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY... STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN BITTERROOT MTNS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM AROUND JDN TO BETWEEN DIK/BIS BY 12Z. RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS CENTERED AROUND 800 MB. THIS AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY RUN FROM SDY TO N60 TO BETWEEN DVL/JMS. ALTHOUGH 800-700 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING IN 00Z RAP/BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP SATURATE THE DENDRITIC LAYER DOWNSTREAM AS EVIDENCED BY REGIONAL RADAR AND RECENT SNOWFALL OBS IN BIS. BOTH RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER LARGE DENDRITIC LAYER EXCEEDING 100 MB...ACROSS NERN ND TOWARDS 12Z. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW RATES AS THE SURFACE LOW/SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE EAST. ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW... 48980691 49000225 49000225 48990007 48999729 46869773 46910153 47400696  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 12:03:41 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 07:03:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224120412.886DDD4407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241200 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-241800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241200Z - 241800Z BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP W-E ACROSS NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. HEAVIEST SNOW /HOURLY RATES 1-1.5 INCHES/ WILL FALL 40-50 MILES N-S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30W KIMT-35SW KDLH-KFAR. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD INTO ERN SD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER THIS MORNING...THEN INTO SWRN MN BY 18Z. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE ALREADY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHORT TERM MODELS ALL AGREE THAT H85-H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE INTENSE ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH 18Z. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MN/WI PER RECENT SREF AND 06Z ETA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THIS SCENARIO UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY WITH A 30-35 DBZ SNOWBAND VCNTY KFAR. AFTER THE COLUMN BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 06Z ETA SOLUTIONS. THIS SUGGESTS PERHAPS AN EARLIER TIMING DOWNSTREAM. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE NCNTRL-NERN MN AREA BY 16Z...AND INTO NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MI NEAR/JUST AFTER 18Z. GIVEN 15-20:1 RATIOS...SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. ..RACY.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 47139659 47599561 47589381 47319235 46989106 46668946 46348880 45748890 45468926 45368982 45399084 45629221 45859360 46079485 46319600 46679645  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 18:15:53 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 13:15:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224181626.504ABD432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241812 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN...NRN WI...SRN/WRN U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 241812Z - 250015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN WI AND PORTIONS OF WRN LOWER MI THROUGH 21Z. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW ...40-50 MILES WIDE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD INTO NERN WI...SWRN/SCENTRAL U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL ROUGHLY FROM IMT TO 35 S OF PLN. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN WILL BE LIKELY. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD INTO SRN WI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SATURATION OF LOW-MID LEVELS OVER SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER /COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH/ WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ESEWD AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER VORT MAX INTO NERN WI...THE SRN U.P OF MI/NRN LOWER MI BETWEEN 20-00Z. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VERTICAL MOTION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOWFALL RATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS /BELOW 850 MB/ AS EVIDENT BY SURFACE OBS OVER NERN WI/SRN U.P OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI...HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER /PER RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVELY/ SHOULD AID IN A SATURATION AND SURFACE HVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH... 47009440 47429382 47309276 46839030 46128718 45548463 45068442 44558484 44528564 44598651 44878755 45128846 45508974 46179231 46489375 46729414  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 18:55:09 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 13:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060224185542.26D5AD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241853 TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL NM...EXTREME SE AZ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 241853Z - 242030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY/SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ONSET OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING APPROACH OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OROGRAPHY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN LAYER MOISTENING WITH BROADER SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 500 J/KG. AS THIS OCCURS...POSSIBLY BY AROUND 21Z NEAR AND WEST OF LAS CRUCES/EL PASO...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS. MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA. ..KERR.. 02/24/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... 31360909 32140931 32940843 32820739 32400682 32090660 31830647 31710646  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 00:40:26 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 19:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225004102.399CCD43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250038 TXZ000-NMZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX/SRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250038Z - 250245Z THREAT FOR HAIL/A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND AREAL THREAT. EVENING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE RATES...AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NWRN MEXICO. THIS PROFILE CONFIRMS MODEL/OA FIELDS...NOW SHOWING MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS RAOB AND EL PASO TX WSR-88D VWP ALSO DEPICT 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL -- PARTICULARLY AS COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32140724 32810671 33150553 32840388 31570375 30710334 30190383 30180469 30620493 31360598 31390609 31730638 31760730  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 01:19:04 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 20:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225011939.A2049D43A2@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250117 MIZ000-250515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250117Z - 250515Z A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH 04 UTC. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS FORCING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NEWD OVER LAKE HURON AND SRN ONTARIO. AT 0030 UTC...RADAR LOOPS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED 30 TO 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CHARLEVOIX COUNTY EWD TO ABOUT OGEMAW COUNTY IN NRN LOWER MI. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN REGION OF DEEP SATURATION WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST OVER NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 04 UTC. LATEST RUC PREDICTION THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/STRONG ASCENT INTO SRN ONTARIO THEREAFTER. ONGOING SNOW RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04 UTC AND THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC. ..BRIGHT.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... 45578520 45418430 44958336 44418324 43868238 43158244 43568325 44328463 44608572 45018597  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:06:57 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:06:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225170737.73A3AD43C7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251704 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA..MS...AL...AND THE FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251704Z - 251830Z THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RISK OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA SEEMS LOW OR LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE NEW ORLEANS/LAKE PONCHARTRAIN AREA. FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS STILL UPSTREAM...ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SURFACE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS...BASED MOSTLY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...PERHAPS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HAIL COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA IN STRONGEST STORMS. INVERSION LAYER MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST...MAINLY NEAR/EAST OF SURFACE WAVE. ..KERR.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29749320 30629233 30918986 31038877 31108757 31038644 30738524 30358473 29648463  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:47:48 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:47:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060225174831.F0BB4D43A0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251745 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...NRN AND CENTRAL VT/NH...SWRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 251745Z - 252345Z HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NRN NY INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE IN A 30-40 MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM ART TO 20 S OF MPV TO LCI TO PWM. HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OUT OF MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT SWRN ME...BY 00Z. LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN NY/PA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE VORT LOBE TRACK AND NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES MOST OF NRN NY...NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION. RECENT SFC/RADAR OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NWRN NY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NH AND SWRN ME THROUGH 00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER /8-10 KFT/ OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AND LOW SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS /20:1/ DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES AROUND 1 INCH IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. ..CROSBIE.. 02/25/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44127012 44497103 44777433 44507563 44027604 43577574 43467395 43337260 43197140 43487029  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 17:59:01 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 12:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060228180017.119F1D43C7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281758 CAZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281758Z - 282000Z ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA SHOWN BY THE RUC. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WARMING SFC TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...NEW STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWD ALONG THE THERMAL AXIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 88D VWPS IN THE AREA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR... 39252276 39692252 39762169 39422130 38102054 37332029 37092095 37252159 38302225  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 20:38:08 2006 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (Mesoscale Convective Discussions) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 15:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <20060228203924.B5E4FD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282036 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT...SE ID...FAR WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282036Z - 282230Z STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN UT...SE ID AND FAR WRN WY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN UT INTO ERN NV. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE GREAT SALT LAKE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW. A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS WRN UT NWD INTO THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S F. A LINE OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 88D VWPS SHOW WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE DOMINANT MODE WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 DEGREES F SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE MOST VIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 02/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... 42731153 42631094 42131043 41331035 40261117 39131255 38321405 38151516 38451592 39041588 39671505 40421361 41921226 42451187