[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 201745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201744 
COZ000-NMZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST WED DEC 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...ECNTRL CO...FAR NE NM

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 201744Z - 202345Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE CO...ECNTRL CO AND FAR NE NM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOW ESPECIALLY NEAR AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NE NM WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER
NEAR RATON NM EXTENDING NWD TO EAST OF PUEBLO CO.  AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THIS LINE WHERE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE ENHANCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN SE CO AND ECNTRL CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE GRANADA CO PROFILER SHOWS
BACKED ELY FLOW FROM ABOVE THE SFC TO NEAR 2 KM AGL.  THIS ALONG
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
SE CO AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NM-CO STATE-LINE WILL
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB FLOW INCREASING ACROSS
SE CO AND ECNTRL CO AND RESULTANT WINDS NEAR THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HEAVY SNOW
ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL
PERSIST. SNOWFALL RATES MAY DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE UPPER-SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 12/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

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