[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Dec 20 12:11:53 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201211 
NEZ000-KSZ000-201615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CST WED DEC 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 201211Z - 201615Z

FREEZING RAIN...AT TIMES MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NCNTRL KS AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE MORNING.  HRLY RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 0.10 INCH...BUT COULD APPROACH 0.25 INCH IN THE
HEAVY SHOWERS.

PROFILERS/VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING.  A LARGE SHIELD OF PCPN
CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD ASSOCD WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE NM
UPPER LOW.  WHILE A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON SWRN/CNTRL KS
THROUGH MID-MORNING...DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NCNTRL KS INTO CNTRL NEB COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.

SFC FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY CREEP NWWD THROUGH LATE MORNING AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES.  BUT...AREAS NW OF A
KOFK-KGRI-KHLC LINE WILL HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF REMAINING AOB
FREEZING THROUGH THE MORNING. COLDEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
OVER CNTRL NEB.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE
CENTERED JUST ABOVE H8 OF 4-6 DEG C WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  LATEST SREF SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR A FREEZING
RAIN EVENT ACROSS ESPECIALLY CNTRL NEB THROUGH 18Z AT LEAST.

AS STRONGER QVEC CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE REGION NEAR 18Z...PRIND
THAT THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE OF A SLEET
AND/OR SNOW PROFILE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA.  THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER WEST...SEE MCD #2284 FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

..RACY.. 12/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

39490055 40110074 40490090 40700097 40980119 41240151
41850140 42410026 42789855 42709774 42289742 41839742
41019817 40529859 39979912 39599953 39280001 

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