[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Dec 20 00:38:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200038 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-200445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM....EXTREME SERN CO AND SWRN KS...WRN
SECTIONS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 200038Z - 200445Z

SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO LOCALLY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND ERN NM. MEANWHILE...
FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE TX PNHDL...NWD ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND
INTO SWRN KS.

POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS AZ
THIS EVENING WITH NOSE OF 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET NOW EMERGING OVER
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SERN NM. INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WAS RESULTING IN AN INCREASING AREA OF TSTM ACTIVITY FROM FAR
WEST TX NNEWD ACROSS SERN NM ATTM. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES
SUBFREEZING SURFACE CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG A GDP-ROW-AMA-LBL LINE.
STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE EVIDENT
ON EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM MAF AND AMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN...WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GLAZE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AND COULD
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 0.10 INCH PER HOUR OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR...AREAS HEAVY SNOW SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
CURRENTLY INDICATE A N-S BAND OF ENHANCED LIFT WAS MOVING EAST FROM
CNTRL NM. THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTENING WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC REGIME FOR
SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LAYER OF STRONGEST LIFT
COOL TO BELOW -12C. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF ECNTRL NM BY
06Z.

..CARBIN.. 12/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

37850167 37550100 37240081 36700064 36020076 35460105
34890154 34240228 33080348 32680448 32440513 33420546
34320542 35240528 35590488 36200444 36710356 37120277
37160269 37750236 