[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191824 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NM...WRN TX...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
AND NWRN OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 191824Z - 200030Z

MDT/HVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN
TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HRLY FREEZING RAIN AMTS UP TO 0.25 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/TSTMS. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN IN NWRN OK...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...ERN/SRN
TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. MEANWHILE...WINTER MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND/OR DIMINISH OVER THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF ERN NM. 

MDT TO HVY CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF STRONG WAA AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER
WRN TX. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE PER WV
SAT IMAGERY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A MID LEVEL DRYSLOT WAS
PRONOUNCED OVER ERN NM. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL SUSTAIN FZDZ...THE MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT ANY ADDITIONAL LT/MDT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON IN MOST OF ERN NM. AS THIS DRYSLOT MOVES INTO WRN
TX...FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE WRN TX
SOUTH PLAINS AND WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH 00Z. 

FURTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ELY OVER THE
ERN/SRN TX SOUTH PLAINS...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW
LEVEL WARMING SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN
IN THESE AREAS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT TRENDS INDICATES FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM W OF GAG TO SE OF AMA TO NEAR LBB
BY 22Z.

..CROSBIE.. 12/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

36340407 37120208 36969925 36519895 35789939 33900109
33200213 32960380 33480460 34520463 35990432 

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