[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Dec 19 16:47:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191648 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN CO...WRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 191648Z - 192245Z

FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS...HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH MUCH OF WRN KS...FAR ERN CO AND FAR SWRN NEB THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR WITH HRLY ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 0.10 IN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS OVER WRN KS. AREAS OF SLEET
WILL MIX IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN CO
AND SWRN NEB.

LATEST GDA PROFILER INDICATES A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE.
12Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND
300 J/KG. MEANWHILE WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE OVER NERN NM UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THIS ASCENT
SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NM. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT SCT MDT/HVY SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER /< 1 KM DEEP/
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MAIN P-TYPE AS FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO. THROUGH 00Z...THE
NWD EXTENT OF THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND I-70...AS MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY OFFSET PRECIP RATES ACROSS NWRN KS...FAR ECENTRAL/NERN CO
AND FAR SWRN NEB.

..CROSBIE.. 12/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

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36990262 