[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Dec 5 01:01:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 050103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050103 
NYZ000-PAZ000-050600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST MON DEC 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS OF WRN NY AND FAR NWRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 050103Z - 050600Z

HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE CANADA/NY BORDER WILL SHIFT
SWD THROUGH THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND INTO SWRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN
PA BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN ADDITIONAL HVY SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD AND AFFECTS AREAS BETWEEN ART AND SYR. HRLY
ACCUMULATION RATES IN BOTH AREAS WILL BE UP TO 2 INCHES
...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS.

RECENT VWP DATA FROM CLE INDICATES AN INCREASING AND VEERING OF THE 
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS JUST RECENTLY PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA /PER RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY/. AS A RESULT...THE HVY
SNOW BAND WHICH HAS RECENTLY MOVED NORTH OF THE BUF AREA INTO SWRN
ONTARIO CANADA AND EXTREME NRN/WRN NIAGARA COUNTY NY WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE BUF METRO AREA IN THE NEXT 3-6 HRS AS THE MEAN
FLOW VEERS TO AROUND 240 DEG. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
VEER /PER THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING/ THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND SHOULD SHIFT
SWD OF THE BUF AREA AND EFFECT PORTIONS OF SWRN NY AND FAR NWRN PA
TOWARDS 06Z. HIGH INVERSION LEVELS /10 KFT PER THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING/
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LAKE FETCH LENGTH WILL SUPPORT GREATER THAN
1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES. IN UPSLOPE AREAS...RATES MAY APPROACH 2
IN/HR.

FURTHER NORTH...THE HVY SNOW BAND OVER LAKE ONTARIO...BEING SEEDED
FROM THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH 03Z AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO AROUND 210 DEG /PER THE BUF
00Z SOUNDING/ AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH. HEAVIEST
SNOW RATES WILL THEREFORE AFFECT NRN OSWEGO...SRN JEFFERSON...WRN
LEWIS/ONEIDA COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z. EVENTUALLY THIS SNOW BAND WILL
SHIFT BACK SWD AROUND OR AFTER 06Z...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.
SIMILAR TO AREAS SOUTH...HVY SNOW RATES UP TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS.

..CROSBIE.. 12/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...

43207672 43477675 43867652 43897609 43687569 43377563
43267615 

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