[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 030102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030102 
MIZ000-WIZ000-030700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST SAT DEC 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF THE U.P OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 030102Z - 030700Z

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE
WRN PORTION OF THE U.P OF MI /INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE N-NE FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 06Z.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WAS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL VERTICAL
MOTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BWCA IN NERN MN. THE
00Z INL SOUNDING INDICATED COOLER THAN MODEL FCST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -18 DEG C/. AS A 1020 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SFC FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED COOLING WILL AID IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASING DELTA-T/S TO BETWEEN 18-20 DEG C BY 06Z OVER WRN LK
SUPERIOR. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N-NELY...THE FETCH WILL BE
ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MINOR-AXIS OF LK SUPERIOR. THUS...A
MULTI-BANDED LES REGIME WILL DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE N-NELY FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 IN PER HR BEFORE 06Z.

..CROSBIE.. 12/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

47578786 47418925 46979073 46669080 46489030 46418930
46618791 46978730