[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Dec 2 00:28:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 020030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020029 
MEZ000-020630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN ME

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 020029Z - 020630Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 02-05Z...AS THE STRONGEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION AND VERTICAL MOTION MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION.
HRLY ACCUMULATION RATES MAY EXCEED 0.25 IN. FOR UP TO A HALF HR AT
ANY LOCATION DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 994 SFC LOW RAPIDLY MOVING ENEWD THROUGH
NRN VT. THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT
INTO SRN/DOWNEAST ME THROUGH 06Z. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS AIDED
IN MAINTAINING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AXIS
FROM SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY INTO NRN WASHINGTON COUNTY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/ERN ME. WITH ANTICIPATED TRACK/MVMNT OF THE SFC
LOW...THIS AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 6 HRS. AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WAA /85 KT LOW
LEVEL JET/ CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...THE DEEP ELEVATED WARM
LAYER NOTED ON THE 19Z AND 00Z GYX SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN 50-75 MILES NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. NORTH OF THIS
ZONE...THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DIMINISHES IN DEPTH...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS NRN ME.  THE 00Z CAR
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER REMAINED JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 DEG C. HOWEVER GIVEN THE APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
SPEED MAX...A PERIOD OF SLEET SHOULD OCCUR AMONGST THE HVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPES FROM 50-100 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR HVY PRECIPITATION RATES OVER 0.25 IN/HR FOR
A 1/2 HR PERIOD OR LONGER.

..CROSBIE.. 12/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

47076775 45456778 44736951 45197047 46556998 47486884 