[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 10:14:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011014 
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-011115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/CENTRAL KY/SWRN OH AND INTO PARTS OF WRN
AND CENTRAL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 872...

VALID 011014Z - 011115Z

WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL OH TO THE N AND NE
OF WW 872.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 872.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGEST AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS
OVER EAST CENTRAL IL/WRN IND...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF PRESSURE
FALLS OVER SWRN OH.  THESE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF OBSERVED
SECONDARY LOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER SERN IND...WHILE PRIMARY
LOW OCCLUDES NWD INTO ERN IL.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WARM
SECTOR IS DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS SWRN-CENTRAL OH AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD...THUS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR NEW WW AS AIR MASS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE N OF WW 872.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SERN IND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KY...WITH THIS LINE MOVING NEWD AT 50 KT.  GIVEN THIS SPEED
COMBINED WITH 55-65 KT SSWLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE PER AREA
VADS WITHIN WW 872...SUGGESTS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THE LINE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT REMAINS AS
BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...
ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND ENEWD ALONG SURFACE WARM
FRONT.

..PETERS.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...

40408154 39508223 38018307 37088374 36588476 36578596
37458566 38358599 39158548 39648496 39948480 40638483
40728405 40768294 41008154 