[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Dec 31 20:56:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 312100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312100 
GAZ000-ALZ000-312330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN AL...NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 312100Z - 312330Z

THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS EXTREME
NERN AL INTO NRN/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL
AL...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN GA INTO CNTRL SC. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AN INITIAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL. MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS IS ATTEMPTING TO
RECOVER W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S
OVER ERN AL/SWRN GA...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.

SMALL STORM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN AL ALONG THE
FRONT...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY LOW...BUT MAY INCREASE A BIT WITH SSWLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG AROUND ATLANTA
WITH 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
INCREASED MID LEVEL JET SPEEDS NOTED RECENTLY ON VWP. GIVEN
CONTINUED FORCING COMING OUT OF AL...PRESENCE OF WARM FRONT...AND
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT OF A TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUST.

..JEWELL.. 12/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...

32638589 33298582 34138576 34768571 34888515 34648383
34218315 33818319 33408352 33188371 32948403 32728433
32638492 32558558 