[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Dec 31 19:45:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 311949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311949 
GAZ000-FLZ000-312145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 311949Z - 312145Z

LINE OF STORMS MOVING E THROUGH SRN GA AND THE ERN FL PANHANDLE MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN GA THROUGH THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
IS MOVING E AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN ZONE OF 850 MB CONFLUENCE. WARMING AND
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO SOME DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MLCAPE REMAINS AOB
500 J/KG DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RECENT VWP DATA STILL
SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 KT. 
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY AND A TENDENCY
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME
AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET LIFTS TOWARD THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS.

..DIAL.. 12/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32058167 30738202 30018310 30148424 31118405 32438348 

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