[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Dec 20 00:50:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 200051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200051 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-200645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST TUE DEC 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 200051Z - 200645Z

FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD
INTO WRN NEB THROUGH 06Z. MDT ACCUMULATION RATES /UP TO 0.05 IN PER
HR/ OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN AND
PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL NEB.

STRONG WAA COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NWD MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS
INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THE 00Z DDC
SOUNDING INDICATED A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED WARM LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW
SUBFREEZING LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY
PTYPE. PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/NCENTRAL NEB MAY SEE A MIX OF SLEET AS
THE WARM LAYER WILL BE LESSER IN VERTICAL EXTENT IN THIS AREA
INITIALLY. THE 00Z LBF SOUNDING ALONG WITH SFC OBS INDICATE DRY AIR
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THIS LAYER WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS/RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION /AND MODERATE PRECIP RATES
FALLING OUT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ SATURATION SHOULD CONTINUE
STEADILY NWD THROUGH 06Z.

..CROSBIE.. 12/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

40189920 40999916 42329971 42600073 42140212 40690206
39990169 