[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 011813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011812 
MEZ000-012345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NERN ME

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 011812Z - 012345Z

A MIXTURE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF ME THROUGH 21Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING THE MORE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HUL TO BML. HVY SNOW MAY BE
THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER FAR NRN ME...DEVELOPING TOWARDS 00Z.
HRLY LIQUID ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.10 INCH WILL BE
LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.

STRONG WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 6 HRS AHEAD OF STRONG 80 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM FRONT
LOCATED PRESENTLY OVER SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. AN ELEVATED WARM
LAYER /NOTED BY 40 DEG F OBSERVATION AT MT. WASHINGTON/ WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION SUPPORTED BY NLY WINDS EMANATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS. AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF NRN ME...WET-BULB COOLING
EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL OF
NRN ME BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LARGE WARM LAYER NOTED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA MOVING INTO THE
REGION...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM HUL TO BML. NORTH OF THIS LINE...SLEET WILL BE THE PRIMARY
P-TYPE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF NRN ME. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAN MOVE. ATTM...THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT FAR NRN ME WILL NEVER SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM
THE MOD/HVY SNOWFALL WHICH SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 21-00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

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