[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 17:27:57 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 011729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011729 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-011930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN/ERN VA...EXTREME SERN MD...ERN
NC...NERN SC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 011729Z - 011930Z

CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ALONG PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 1715Z FROM ABOUT 50 SW RIC TO 20
NW SAV.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS.  ALSO...LINE OF SVR
CONVECTION CLOSER TO COLD FRONT...AND NOW IN WWS 874-875 MAY
BACKBUILD SWD AND AFFECT PORTIONS CENTRAL VA.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN AND
TIDEWATER REGION FROM MD TO ERN NC...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS NERN SC. 
SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F WILL
COUNTERACT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO RAISE MLCAPES TO 500
J/KG...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR...AS
TIGHTEST GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT PASSES OVER REGION SE OF EJECTING
MID-UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. 30-40 KT OF 0-1 KM VECTOR
SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER NC/VA PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...BASED ON
VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SVR PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH SC BECAUSE OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE...AND BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
VEERING TREND IN PRE-STORM BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RELATED TO
ISALLOBARIC FORCING.

..EDWARDS.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

33577990 36657842 37877831 38367760 38447500 37897531
37107588 36917598 36057566 35677545 35197550 35117592
34557652 34707680 34567722 34227777 33827794 33867854
33507903 33107922 