[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Dec 1 06:40:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 010642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010641 
MIZ000-011045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 010641Z - 011045Z

FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATION RATES SHOULD EXCEED 0.10 IN/HR. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 00Z DTX/06Z ILX
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CENTERED AROUND 850 MB. 00Z NAM/GFS AND 03Z RUC
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
12Z...TO THE NE OF AN APPROACHING 850 MB LOW TRACKING FROM SRN MO
INTO E-CNTRL IL. INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION
GENERATION. IN ADDITION...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z AS A POTENT 100+ KT 500 MB JET
CURLS EWD OF UPPER LOW APPROACHING SRN IL. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 12/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

42458390 42188486 42078558 42078616 42228639 42868617
43068541 43308466 43298389 42798331 