[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 31 20:53:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 312056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312055 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-312300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 312055Z - 312300Z

STORMS WILL FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU OVER ERN CO ALONG SEGMENT OF
COLD FRONT AND ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE MAY GROW
INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS CIN GETS ERASED WITH CONTINUED HEATING.
ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG FRONT FROM
CENTRAL NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO. FARTHER E...CU FIELD IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS WRN KS INTO NWRN OK...WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE BEING MAINTAINED BY BACKED SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS WRN KS/OK INTO FAR ERN CO...PRODUCING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR STRONG/SVR UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS IN THE MID
LEVELS...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISRUPT STORM STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
BRIEFLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A MULTICELLULAR MODE.
LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 08/31/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

39540397 40210281 40200207 39510115 38850024 37769919
36609891 36419903 36519967 37220083 38130343 

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