[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 302041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302041 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...SERN MT...FAR WRN NEB...EXTREME ERN WY AND
SWRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302041Z - 302315Z

ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN MT
INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD WITH A MARGINAL WIND
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TOWERING CU NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP/NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. TO THE EAST...SLY FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS IS MAINTAINING 45-55 F DEWPOINTS E OF DRYLINE. A FEW STORMS
LIKELY TO FORM AS LOW LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG WRN
DAKOTAS BORDER AREA...AND A WEAK LEAD UPPER VORT MOVES EWD OUT OF
CNTRL WY. INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT VERY DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE DRY MICRO BURST THREAT. STORMS WILL HAVE
THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE LOW END HAIL ONCE THEY INGEST MORE MOIST AIR
E OF DRYLINE W/DEWPTS LOWER 50S F. HOWEVER...CAPPING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS/NEB WHICH WILL LIMIT EWD THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

42480236 41280298 41640426 41990436 42230429 42680422
43400384 43830413 44370458 44980532 45400586 45940667
46290650 46890483 47200428 46990357 45470274 43690211 

WWWW