[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 30 03:00:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 300303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300302 
FLZ000-300500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...

VALID 300302Z - 300500Z

WW 758 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
MARGINAL. WW RE-ISSUANCE BEYOND 06Z APPEARS UNLIKELY UNLESS
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

LATE THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS JUST N OF THE CNTRL FL
KEYS AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE NWWD TONIGHT. RECENT
RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS E OF THE CENTER ABOUT 20 MILES OFF THE SERN FL COAST.
THESE CELLS ARE MOVING WNWWD. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE
ALONG THE SERN FL COAST WITH DEEP ELY FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 6
KM AND MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM. SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME SERN
COAST OF FL AS ERNESTO CONTINUES NWWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF DAY
AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WELL E OF THE CENTER EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 08/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

25148038 25548086 26368139 27448084 27247989 25467964 

WWWW