[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 26 20:06:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 262008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262007 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SWRN/CENTRAL/NERN
OK...SERN KS.THE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262007Z - 262130Z

POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING OVER BROAD SWATH OF SRN
PLAINS FROM NW TX TO NERN OK...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS SERN KS.  WW
LIKELY OVER SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INVOF MKC...WITH
STATIONARY FRONT SWWD ACROSS BUTLER COUNTY KS TO DEWEY COUNTY OK. 
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS STRONGER FARTHER SW OVER EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK AND
SRN TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY FROM BECKHAM COUNTY OK PAST LBB...
BECAUSE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  THAT SEGMENT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD
AS A COLD FRONT ATTM BUT MAY STALL TEMPORARILY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER E...WEAK HEAT LOW IS EVIDENT ABOUT 35 SW
FSI...WITH SFC TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS KINGFISHER AND OSAGE COUNTIES
OK...AND SWWD THROUGH MAF AREA.  RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL AR WNWWD ACROSS OKMULGEE COUNTY
OK...INTERSECTING TROUGH OVER KINGFISHER COUNTY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN/ERN OK. VIS/REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY AND VISUAL OBSERVATION SHOWS VIGOROUS YOUNG CB NEAR THAT
INTERSECTION AS OF 1945Z.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND BETWEEN TROUGH AND FRONT...THROUGH 23Z.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT STRONGLY AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS
ENTIRE REGION E OF FRONT...WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND
HIGH STORM BASES LIKELY DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  DESPITE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSOLATION AND MID-60S/LOW-70S F SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND MORE
WEAKENING OF CINH.  THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DAMAGING GUST
POTENTIAL...EVEN AS FAR S AS W-CENTRAL/NW TX WHERE DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK.  ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED OVER OK AND SERN KS INVOF FRONT...WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS
WILL AID STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32460261 34610125 37269742 37689608 36849596 36079566
35569461 34739514 34649696 32809863 32100150 32330228 

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