[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 261844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261843 
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO...SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261843Z - 262045Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
E/SE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT/WRN CO AND SWRN WY. THE INTENSITY OF
THESE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN
AREAS WHERE ROBUST SOLAR HEATING OCCURS IN CONJUCTION WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH
MLCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...APPROACHING 1000
J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED AROUND
100 TO 150 KM SE OF THE MID/UPPER-LOW CENTER...MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE
E-CNTRL/SERN VALLEYS OF UT AND W-CNTRL VALLEYS OF CO. GJT VAD
PROFILER SAMPLES THIS CURRENTLY...WITH 50 KTS OF SWLY FLOW AT 6 KM.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MOST
LIKELY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CAN REMAIN LARGE.

..GRAMS.. 08/26/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

39811159 40731124 41511019 41720929 41680805 41200737
40070738 38540751 37750773 37360835 37050936 37221069
37721162 38401175 

WWWW