[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 24 18:10:00 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 241812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241811 
ILZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241811Z - 241945Z

STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN WI WILL APPROACH THE IL BORDER BY
19Z. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE
NEXT HOUR. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS
THEY DEVELOP SEWD...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR NRN IL.

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS SRN WI ARE MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. STORMS OVER SWRN WI
APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THOUGH THE
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN W OF THIS REGION...SLY LOW LEVEL
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
LEADING GUST FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SEWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO IL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH A
DEEPER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS A LITTLE MORE MODEST. THIS
WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
WARM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SSEWD.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...

41708761 41368838 41548967 42319021 42338787 

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