[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 23 03:01:59 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230302 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-230430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 731...

VALID 230302Z - 230430Z

CONTINUE WW 731...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TO THE
SOUTH/EAST.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...ON NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.  FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD PAST
FEW HOURS...AND IT STILL APPEARS CENTER OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF FARGO ND AND NORTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA MN BY 05-06Z.  INTENSE CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
...WILL PROBABLY BECOME ALIGNED WITH WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN
...NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS COULD POSE INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TIER SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES
JUST SOUTH OF WATCH...ALONG INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN TRAINING CELLS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TOWARD
THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA.

..KERR.. 08/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46499953 47389769 46949553 46599472 45899372 45149324
44899377 45039465 45179516 45379603 45709815 

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