[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 18 06:16:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180617 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT...FAR NE WY...NW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180617Z - 180745Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE MT...NE
WY AND NW SD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN MN...INTO CNTRL SD AND SE WY. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) IS PRESENT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BISMARK WSR-88D VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45
KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 08/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

44440175 44310386 44940465 45850431 46120294 45920170
45230115 

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