[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 18 04:45:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180446 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MT AND NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180446Z - 180645Z

TSTMS CONTINUE SCATTERED ACROSS SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD AND WRN ND
THIS EVE...AIDED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY
MOVE EWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
ASCENT SPREADING N OF THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE DAKS. THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

FARTHER S...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN WY/SERN MT
MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL SD THROUGH 06Z. THIS
OUTFLOW WILL AUGMENT THE COLD FRONT...AND TSTMS WILL BECOME
POST-FRONTAL QUICKLY...OR BE ROOTED ATOP THE POCKETS OF COLDER AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SD.  THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ALOFT WILL FAVOR
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..RACY.. 08/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

45000574 46090430 45990179 45579943 44709908 44100121
44400489 

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