[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 18 02:08:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 180209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180209 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...NWRN/NCNTRL SD...SWRN/SCNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180209Z - 180315Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE LLJ WAS INCREASING AND ENHANCING THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ALONG/N OF THE E-W COLD FRONT.  THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS SERN MT AND NWRN
SD...SIMILAR TO SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS.  TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS MOSTLY NRN SD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7.8 DEG C PER KM ON THE 00Z KRAP SOUNDING/ ACROSS THE REGION AND
30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. 
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A THREAT AS WELL IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN SD.  

GIVEN THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...AT LEAST
FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SERN MT INTO NRN/CNTRL SD.

..RACY.. 08/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45900706 46720377 46400052 45739911 44750031 43780156
43510347 44290579 

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