[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 17 06:51:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 170652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170652 
NDZ000-MTZ000-170815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT THU AUG 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL MT INTO WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170652Z - 170815Z

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SW
INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND INTO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TIME PERIOD.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN/SRN MT
INTO WRN ND.  DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/WRN ND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED
OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS UP TO 60 KT ARE
RESULTING IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.  

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL/
COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
ORGANIZED BASED ON STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EVOLVE INTO
BOWING SEGMENTS PER WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
ALSO RESULT IN A ISOLATED HAIL...THOUGH LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

45890956 45601145 45681247 46091268 46811250 47171107
47450938 47670748 47700565 47850359 47690054 47050028
46130101 45890469 45890758 

WWWW