[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 15 20:34:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 152035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152035 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH N CNTRL AND NERN SD...SERN ND AND W
CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152035Z - 152230Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN WY THROUGH WRN SD MAY INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AREAS FARTHER NE FROM N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD INTO W
CNTRL MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS. IF STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THIS REGION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL MN WWD THROUGH NRN SD AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED REGIME AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN WY THROUGH
WRN SD. FARTHER EAST...ELEVATED MID LEVEL STORMS CONTINUE OVER NERN
SD. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW A BAND OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER N CNTRL SD. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN
THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MODEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE CAP CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.  A FEW SURFACE BASED
STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED STORMS OVER NERN SD. A BELT OF 30 TO 35 KT WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS RESULTING IN
VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT.

..DIAL.. 08/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46269820 45340043 45100229 44790328 43190364 43360193
44629911 44849613 45909576 

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