[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Aug 15 00:19:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150021 
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...ERN WY...WRN NEB...NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720...

VALID 150021Z - 150215Z

SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH BOX
WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. FARTHER S...THREAT CONTINUES WITH ACTIVITY FROM WRN NEB INTO
NERN CO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. THREAT HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF ERN
WY AND THOSE COUNTIES WILL BE CLEARED AT 0030Z.

00Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG AND VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATION OVER SWRN SD DUE TO BACKED SELY SURFACE WINDS...TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
TEMP/DEW SPREADS OVER 30 F. STILL...THREAT FOR PARTICULARLY DAMAGING
WINDS WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES WILL RESULT.

FARTHER S...ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG
LINKED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO.

WHILE INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW...STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST STRONG STORMS A FEW
COUNTIES E OF THE WATCH.

..JEWELL.. 08/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

39580275 39550496 39100537 39930536 39950572 40160570
41000623 41000527 42670532 42650497 43490493 43520521
44990516 45040408 45230407 45240298 45060292 45090205
43690200 43680215 42990210 43000277 41180258 40410261
40420279 

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