[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 12 23:04:47 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 122306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122306 
MNZ000-130030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122306Z - 130030Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD ACROSS NRN MN AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
AND A WW MAY NOT BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS CURRENTLY IN NW MN LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GOING OVER THE TOP OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT IN ERN SD AND
THE MCS IS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET MAX. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT SUPPORTING THE MCS THIS
EVENING MOVING ACROSS NRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR 88D
VWPS...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER ACROSS NRN MN. THIS
ALONG WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THIS EVENING. HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED
IN THE MCS.

..BROYLES.. 08/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

46699285 46579505 47859554 48839511 48549285 

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