[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 12 19:43:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 121945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121944 
WYZ000-MTZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SW MT...CNTRL AND NWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121944Z - 122215Z

ISOLATED SVR WIND AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER SRN OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO WRN MT/WY BY THIS EVENING. COOLING
ALOFT WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING HAS PRODUCE VERY
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE THREAT IS
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEAK /< 500 J/KG/ DUE TO ONLY UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG 50+ KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND FAVORABLE/INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT...A
FEW STORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 08/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

44171026 45221131 46490942 46090702 44930675 43230653
42880771 42820924 

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