[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 121937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121937 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...PARTS OF WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121937Z - 122100Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/
WESTERN MN.  A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

LEAD WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS NOW
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTRIBUTING TO
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING/
INCREASING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW...AND SEEMS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
21-22Z.  GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...THOUGH
THERE LIKELY STILL REMAINS SOME INHIBITION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
...AND CLOUD COVER IS RESTRICTING SURFACE HEATING.  HOWEVER...WITH
MODERATE VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT CREATING FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS...AND
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND THE FARGO AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 08/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46209919 47109901 47779849 48569733 48529608 47389591
46049665 45559775 45719918 

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