[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Aug 6 21:12:45 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 062113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062112 
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-062315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/WRN AR/ERN OK/NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 062112Z - 062315Z

...ISOLD MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS AND FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF SE OK AS WELL AS NE TX...

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH ELY WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SRN LA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH GULF WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE OZARKS IN MO/AR THROUGH NE TX. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 102-106 ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL OK. COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/70S...THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES NEAR 1400 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT AS STORMS COLLAPSE...STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL RESULT IN ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS. RECENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO INDICATED A 42 KT GUST AS THE TEMP
DROPPED FROM 96 TO 80...AND IN NE TX...A 44KT GUST WAS RECORDED AT
GREENVILLE /KGVT/. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FOR MICROBURSTS...LOCAL CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60+ MPH.

..TAYLOR.. 08/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32849351 31409591 32139719 34649672 36289524 38359344
38429272 37929234 34689216 33319240 

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