[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Aug 6 19:02:42 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 061901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061901 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS AND SERN NEB INTO CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061901Z - 062130Z

WATCH NOT EXPECTED ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITOR.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN IA SWWD THRU SERN
NEB INTO NWRN KS.  RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONG CELLS JUST N OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH SOME STRONGER LOOKING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL
KS.

AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES OVER KS ARE AROUND
100...INTO THE LOW/MID 90S THRU NWRN MO...AND UPR 80S INTO SRN IA. 
DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.  ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
WRF SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE BASES OF AROUND
8000 FT AGL AS IT STILL FIGHTS CAPPING INVERSION.  BUT...DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DEEPEN ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7-7.5C/KM WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD THEN COLLAPSE
POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39889690 40289573 40729424 41109333 41449306 41889304
42099358 41999432 41719513 41459597 41159697 40979771
40609884 40169937 39599967 39189984 38769991 38479962
38709881 39129821 39659750 