[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060150 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687...

VALID 060150Z - 060315Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY SWRN PART OF WW
687...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS ERN NEB THIS
EVENING.  NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED
THREAT...UNLESS A MARKED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE
BEGINS TO OCCUR.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER BOONE/MADISON COUNTIES NEB.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SSWWD THROUGH HOLT COUNTY
NEB TO NWRN KS...WHILE A SSWLY LLJ EXTENDED FROM NRN KS INTO NERN
NEB.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEB THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED AT LEAST 15 MILES AHEAD OF THE STORMS. 
THIS WOULD SUGGEST NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WAA ALONG
LLJ AXIS...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EWD ALONG
SERN SD/NERN NEB BORDER COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS ERN
NEB INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE S OF WW 687...MAINLY IN ERN NEB...THIS NEW STRONG/
SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...THUS PRECLUDING THE NEED
FOR A NEW WW.

..PETERS.. 08/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41479849 42379822 43419820 43839688 43839484 42219490
41359524 41009717 

WWWW