[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Aug 5 19:31:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 051932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051932 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SRN AR/NRN LA/EXTREME NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051932Z - 052130Z

...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEVELOPING TSTMS FROM ECNTRL OK THROUGH
SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE FORMING ACROSS NERN LA/SERN AR INVOF MLU TO LLQ...POSSIBLY AIDED
BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH ELY WAVE IN GULF.

AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
90S OR HIGHER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/LOWER 70S. ADDITIONAL
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500-3000
J/KG. RUC ANALYSIS AND MORNING RAOBS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A COOL
POCKET ALOFT...WHERE 500MB TEMPS ARE NEAR MINUS 7C. VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES REMAIN VERY WEAK...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT PULSE SVR TSTMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..TAYLOR.. 08/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32129099 32259411 33989645 34829618 35439545 35449472
35099342 34669146 34319057 33599033 32569029 

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