[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 4 19:23:06 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041923 
SDZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041923Z - 042100Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD. HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
EXISTS IN CNTRL AND NRN SD. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE STORMS
MOVE EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT EVIDENT ON THE
PROFILER IN SWRN SD AT 18Z SUGGESTS SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

43260229 43470307 44420311 45770218 45679996 43640082 

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