[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 041856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041855 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH SERN OK/SW MO/WRN AND CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041855Z - 042100Z

...THREAT FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTN...

STALLED/WASHED OUT FRONT EXTENDS FROM ADA TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK. SOUTH
THIS BOUNDARY...EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/TCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN/WCNTRL AR. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED
LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SO ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THERE IS A THREAT
FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH COLLAPSING STORMS. 

BEST POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WILL BE IN LOCATIONS WHERE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE MAXIMIZED WITH INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN OK/WCNTRL AR WHERE DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AT ARDMORE TO MID 60S NEAR HOT SPRINGS.
HIGH PW VALUES FROM 1.75-2 INCHES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

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