[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 4 18:24:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041824 
MNZ000-NDZ000-042000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041824Z - 042000Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN ND AND NW MN. THIS CONVECTION IN NE ND AND NRN
MN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN
ND... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AND A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER NRN ND AND NW MN. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD INTO AN AXIS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MAY BE SUSTAINED FURTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN SD...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
ONGOING ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKER SHEAR
PROFILES THAN IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
IN SCNTRL ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
MAY DEVELOP.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

48159988 48729846 48949684 48849572 48659440 48069350
47439371 47089464 47239596 47139744 46579852 46059947
46109995 46360101 47110105 

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