[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Aug 4 17:20:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 041721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041721 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-041915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TN/SW VA/WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041721Z - 041915Z

...ISOLD SVR THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN
INTO THE SW VA MTNS AND SMOKY MTNS...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF
NASHVILLE TO CNTRL VA. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING MCS NOW IN W TN THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSON TO MEMPHIS.
NEW TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM HENDERSON CO EWD NEAR FRONTAL ZONE PER
RECENT VIS IMAGERY. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF TN IS DESTABILIZING
RAPIDLY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AS NOTED ON
MODIFIED 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. REGION EAST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINA PLAINS IS BEING MONITORED FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.

..TAYLOR.. 08/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35218147 34918373 35038847 35798812 36638754 36828373
36868139 36458033 35998057 

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