[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 23:18:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 032319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032318 
OKZ000-TXZ000-040115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN AND ERN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 032318Z - 040115Z

CLUSTER OF MARGINALLY SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
AFTER 01Z. LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/SCENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE RELATIVE
MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND EXPECTED DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF OK BEGINNING BY 01Z...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER-MID 90S OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
MUCH OF ERN OK. RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CINH
OVER NRN OK...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE LINES
MOVING NWD THROUGH WCENTRAL OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND SOME SVR WIND POTENTIAL INTO PORTIONS OF NRN OK. ISOLATED SVR
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS ECENTRAL OK. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...NWD STORM MVMNT INTO MORE
STABLE AIR ALONG THE KS BORDER AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
UNDERCUTTING MOST NEW CONVECTION IN SRN OK...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE MITIGATED BEGINNING BY 01Z.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

36699835 36869975 36490097 36230103 35860085 34960029
34619988 34639884 34569797 34459703 34959582 35429539
36089610 36359739 

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