[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 032007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032006 
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA...NRN NJ...SE NY...LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 684...

VALID 032006Z - 032130Z

CONTINUE WW.  SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS PEAKING...WITH TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 100F IN URBAN AREAS.  DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO THE SOUTH OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WHICH
HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF BOSTON...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF NEW
YORK CITY.  STORMS INITIATING ACROSS THE POCONOS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW YORK CITY...AND SURFACE COLD POOL
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING WITH UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF
STORMS...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA BY 22-23Z.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALL
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41957577 42137469 42067403 42007325 41897197 41307147
40857218 40647330 40647417 40507468 40497571 40817645
41347588 

WWWW