[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 19:25:14 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031926 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SERN MO...NWRN TN...FAR WRN KY/FAR SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031926Z - 032130Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN AR ENEWD
INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT
LAKES...REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 20-25 KTS OF WSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A BNDRY THAT
DEVELOPED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THICK
CIRRUS SHIELD. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FYV ENEWD TO NEAR
CGI. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION/BNDRY WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED BANDS OF MULTICELLULAR
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z OVER NRN AR AND SERN MO...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD
AROUND 15 KTS TOWARD EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY AND NWRN TN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36109312 35649417 35289415 34679391 35249151 35938952
36258862 36768820 37388860 37378937 37059019 

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