[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Aug 3 18:55:01 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031855 
OKZ000-TXZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 031855Z - 032130Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS OVER SRN/CENTRAL OK WWD
INTO FAR NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE. HVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WCENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLE A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT-TOWERING CU OVER SRN OK IN AN
AIRMASS THAT WAS NEARLY UNCAPPED AND WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS FOCUSED
ALONG SEVERAL DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU
WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR AMA
ESEWD TO NEAR CDS AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM AMA
EWD TO NEAR OKC. INSPECTION OF AREA VWPS/PROFILER DATA SHOWS AROUND
20 KTS OF MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW...SO STORMS MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT /95-103 F/ COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD
SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT DUE TO CONTINUED
FRONTOGENETIC INFLUENCE OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING ACROSS NRN
OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG OTHER
WEAKER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SVR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO SVR POTENTIAL...SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK...DUE TO BACKED LOW LEVEL ELY
FLOW...ALONG WITH W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
/1.7 INCHES AT AMA/ WILL SUPPORT A HVY RAINFALL THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 08/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35780281 35210293 34240178 34010054 33959978 33939853
34039732 34219679 34489582 34809511 35189514 35519571
35499655 35579692 35579786 35849914 36160232 

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