[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 22:51:25 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022252 
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...SRN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...

VALID 022252Z - 030045Z

SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 35 KTS
ACROSS SRN WI INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI /WW 673/ OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN
LOWER MI IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW
SOUTH OF WW 673 MAY BE NECESSARY BY 01Z.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ BNDRY EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF
THE QUAD CITIES TO THE NRN CHICAGO METRO AREA ENEWD TO FLINT MI.
AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 673 INTO NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI
WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN A FEW MORE
HRS OF HEATING/CONVERGENCE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF WW 673. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
30-35 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL FLOW /PER RECENT PROFILER/VWP
DATA/ AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT OVER NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43738976 43609071 42259082 41639018 41438904 41598736
41858495 42248339 42888265 43488224 44248243 44558357 

WWWW