[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 22:12:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 022213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022213 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA AND
NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...

VALID 022213Z - 030015Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS /674/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ENEWD INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY
23Z FOR THE AREA. 

A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KTS
ACROSS CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS MOTION WILL TAKE
THE SVR THREAT OUT OF WW 674 AND INTO ECENTRAL/NERN KS AND FAR SERN
NEB AROUND 00Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER GIVEN RECENT SAT/RADAR TRENDS OF
MDT-TOWERING CU AND SMALL ECHOES OVER NERN KS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW
/25-30 KTS/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN
MO AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN IA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

40429570 40019737 39639788 38919834 38509877 37209916
37069808 37979553 38939404 39539289 40279224 40919294
40969424 

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