[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 18:15:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021816 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-022015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN KS...FAR SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021816Z - 022015Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT
HR...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO NCENTRAL KS BEFORE 20Z.
FURTHER NE OVER FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN
IA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LATER /AFTER 21Z/. A
WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN KS /NEAR
DDC/. TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE EXISTS
VERY LITTLE CINH OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/NCENTRAL KS. FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DDC TO
SOUTH OF CONCORDIA WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO NCENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH SRN
EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /25-35 KTS FROM 2-6 KM PER
PROFILER DATA/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS.

FURTHER NE...COPIOUS MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SLOW
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND CINH REMOVAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 21Z
ALONG THE FRONT IN NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB/NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA ALSO SUPPORTING SOME
DMGG WIND POTENTIAL IF STORMS DEVELOP.

..CROSBIE.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

40919456 40579552 39789717 39149942 38280035 37930031
37770003 37779986 37849886 38059751 38749618 39109577
39819446 40619409 

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