[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 021502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021501 
MIZ000-021630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 021501Z - 021630Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WINDS IS ACCOMPANYING UPPER IMPULSE
MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH 50+ KT FLOW
EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA AS LOW AS 3 KM AGL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH MIDDAY...WHEN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD.  A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND PROBABLY WILL
DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HOUGHTON LAKE BY 17-18Z.  BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL IN
PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER
...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS TO CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND TO SUPPORT INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS BASED IN DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  IF THIS OCCURS...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL ARE LIKELY.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...BEFORE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO DURING
THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

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