[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Aug 2 09:58:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 021000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020959 
MIZ000-021200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020959Z - 021200Z

RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 12Z.  MARGINAL HAIL AND
POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING EWD
AT GREATER THAN 50 KT APPROACHING LEELANAU COUNTRY IN NWRN LOWER MI.
 THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI...WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRANSFER OF STRONG HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER...AND
WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THE IMPACT OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
BOWING SEGMENT PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS ACROSS LEELANAU
CNTY AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY BY 10Z... CHARLEVOIX/ANTRIM AND
OTSEGO/SRN CHEBOYGAN CNTYS BY 11Z...AND MONTMORENCY/PRESQUE ISLE AND
ALPENA CNTYS BEFORE 12Z.

..WEISS.. 08/02/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

45138577 45468532 45598460 45598359 45268292 44728293
44338428 44288622 44348651 

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