[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010313 
NYZ000-010445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010313Z - 010445Z

SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN ONT...POTENTIALLY
EVOLVING INTO MCS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. 
AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

EARLIER/DIURNALLY AIDED ACTIVITY OVER SERN ONT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED
INTO WEAKER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS NRN NY.  APPARENT SUPERCELL
OVER SERN ONT MAY CROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER WITHIN NEXT HOUR INTO
PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE/JEFFERSON COUNTIES AND MAY HAVE GREATER
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR ON AMERICAN SIDE OF BORDER THAN PRIOR
ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER NW ALSO SHOULD PERSIST INTO
NRN NY THEREAFTER.  INCREASING AND SLGTLY VEERING LLJ...CONCURRENT
WITH DECOUPLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER...WILL ADVECT MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONT INTO THIS REGION 1-3 KM
AGL...BASED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND RUC/850 MB MOISTURE PROGS.
 ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED BUF RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE
WILL COUNTERACT MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MUCAPES
2000-2500 J/KG.  FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED -- I.E. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 
MOST PROBABLE CONVECTIVE TRACK APPEARS TO EXTEND
SEWD ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC/BUOYANCY GRADIENT TOWARD UCA-ALB
AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44987494 43727384 42947360 42837459 43237550 44207640
44347591 44757546 44987502 

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